January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Do you think the prolonged nature of the SSW could end up causing us to run out of time for any meaningful cold even if the right 500mb pattern eventually sets up? As far as I understand, there is usually a 2-3 week lag before we feel the effects of a SSW. But if the SSW is prolonged, then it takes longer before we can even enter the 2-3 week lag period.

It’s very possible. I don’t think any 2 are exactly alike. Most times in weather 1+1 don’t always equal 2. I think the pattern progression is more likely tied to the MJO response to the SSW. I honestly haven’t had a chance to pay much attention but is the MJO looking to become more active?

[AbbyJr]

It’s very possible. I don’t think any 2 are exactly alike. Most times in weather 1+1 don’t always equal 2. I think the pattern progression is more likely tied to the MJO response to the SSW. I honestly haven’t had a chance to pay much attention but is the MJO looking to become more active?

I honestly haven’t had a chance to pay much attention but is the MJO looking to become more active?

From what I understand from briefly skimming through the following writeup, yes.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... update.pdf

[stuffradio]

CFSv2.NaT2m.20210108.202102.png

[Hawk]

Nitos killing it and sticking us with pineapples all winter. Yes 3/4 cold Feb with Decembers and Jan that suck. Yup climate is messed up alright. I'm sorry..but once Feb hits I'm looking forward to spring. Snow in Feb is on a very short lease with nothing to look forward to except days where it hits 14c in the sunshine. I cant wait!

[Hawk]

But all this rain does the SW interior snowpack wonders. I cant wait to see how much snow there will be in mid Feb in my favourite hills in the Similkameen.
Its only early Jan and it's already outstanding. I will be sure to send pics

[wetcoast91]

Cold March and April incoming?

[Catnip]

Cold March and April incoming?

If we don't score at the #beginningofFEB then put this Winter in the record books for being total crap and bring on some +17 Sunny March days.

Almost time to think Spring Flowers

C'MON!!!

[tyweather]

Finally the operational looks promising. Only 16+ days away

[wetcoast91]

If we don't score at the #beginningofFEB then put this Winter in the record books for being total crap and bring on some +17 Sunny March days.

Almost time to think Spring Flowers

C'MON!!!

You know it's not that easy Mr Nip.

Expect lots of +4 to +8C weather in March and April. Lots of cold troughs!

[stuffradio]

You know it's not that easy Mr Nip.

Expect lots of +4 to +8C weather in March and April. Lots of cold troughs!

Trough after Trough (TaT)

[Bonovox]

Trough after Trough (TaT)

I wouldn’t say no to that.

[Monty]

GEFS shows any meaningful retrogression is still about 2 weeks away. Not unusual to see false starts in pattern changes from the models. Late January is probably still on the table for cold weather.

Blob has been taking some pretty big hits this winter. The warm anomalies in the N pacific are becoming pretty muted. Trending more towards a negative pdo signature.

[Pumpkin Seed]

Cold March and April incoming?

You just keep it and enjoy yourself!

[AbbyJr]

GEFS shows any meaningful retrogression is still about 2 weeks away. Not unusual to see false starts in pattern changes from the models. Late January is probably still on the table for cold weather.

Blob has been taking some pretty big hits this winter. The warm anomalies in the N pacific are becoming pretty muted. Trending more towards a negative pdo signature.

EPS looked a lot better last night while the GEFS has trended worse. Personally, I'd rather have the EPS on our side anyways.

Not to mention, the models are still trying to work out the upcoming pattern change. I think a colder pattern the last week of January into early February is a good bet, but the exact timing, how cold, and whether or not its favourable for sea level snow remains to be seen.

[Hound]

https://twitter.com/frankiemacd/status/ ... 2972969991

https://twitter.com/frankiemacd/status/ ... 0380602371