January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Pardon the pun but this winter it feels like we are like a dog chasing its tail.

[AbbyJr]

To much of the media...the west does not exist.

Exactly. If the SSW didn't effect the east, then it didn't effect North America at all. Logical, right?

[Antares]

Quote from the article:

No one lives out west. That's wild, untamed country!

[wetcoast91]

Eastern CONUS keeps getting Arctic Blasts and it looks like the PV is slated to drop.

[wetcoast91]

[AbbyJr]

Eastern CONUS keeps getting Arctic Blasts and it looks like the PV is slated to drop.

Good news for us. Given our -ENSO/+QBO state, the PV will likely shift west as it did in February 2019, if it does in fact drop south.

This could be another case where the east gets hit hard with cold first and then it shifts into the west.

Its common with Siberian SSW's for the east to get cold first and then the cold favours the west later.

No guarantees but first step is to get the PV down south.

[PortKells]

Relax. Hour 300+ is ensemble territory. How many amazing operational runs have failed to materialize. The PNA is slated to tank around the 21st. The east was always going to get hit first.

[tyweather]

Today Mt. Baker Ski Area ski patrol triggered an avalanche outside the ski area boundary using explosives and the results were incredible! This avalanche has a crown on it ranging in depth of 8 to 12 feet! That’s what a big snowy week with fluctuating temperatures can do! Be safe out there folks! -@cshillingphotograpy

[Monty]

Eastern CONUS keeps getting Arctic Blasts and it looks like the PV is slated to drop.

I guess they are due for some lake effect. I saw the ski hills in the UP of Michigan are still bare. Hoping to open in late January if it ever snows.

[AbbyJr]

00Z GEFS trends east again.

Also, the models are showing another SSW event. Perhaps this is why we are getting more and more flip flopping in this timeframe.

When was the last time we had back to back SSW events?

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.png

[Monty]

00Z GEFS trends east again.

Also, the models are showing another SSW event. Perhaps this is why we are getting more and more flip flopping in this timeframe.

When was the last time we had back to back SSW events?

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.png

Not my area of expertise but I don’t think it works that way. These waves of warmth that keep the PV off tilt are part of the same event. I think.

[AbbyJr]

Not my area of expertise but I don’t think it works that way. These waves of warmth that keep the PV off tilt are part of the same event. I think.

Do you think the prolonged nature of the SSW could end up causing us to run out of time for any meaningful cold even if the right 500mb pattern eventually sets up? As far as I understand, there is usually a 2-3 week lag before we feel the effects of a SSW. But if the SSW is prolonged, then it takes longer before we can even enter the 2-3 week lag period.

[AbbyJr]

Not my area of expertise but I don’t think it works that way. These waves of warmth that keep the PV off tilt are part of the same event. I think.

Do you think the prolonged nature of the SSW could end up causing us to run out of time for any meaningful cold even if the right 500mb pattern eventually sets up? As far as I understand, there is usually a 2-3 week lag before we feel the effects of a SSW. But if the SSW is prolonged, then it takes longer before we can even enter the 2-3 week lag period.

[wetcoast91]

Jan was never in the cards. Hoping we see some major ridging and sunshine in the meantime. Unfortunately models want to brush Southern BC with mild rain.

[AbbyJr]

Jan was never in the cards. Hoping we see some major ridging and sunshine in the meantime. Unfortunately models want to brush Southern BC with mild rain.

I wouldn't say January was never in the cards. There was a solid chance we see something mid-late month. However, now it looks like we may have to wait until February.

But you can't say January was never in the cards, as if January 1st you knew what was going to happen in the 384+ hour range.