January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

18z GEFS day 10, 11 and 12. This is not a -PNA. Ridge axis is offshore, but the longwave trough is stuck east of the rockies.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Reasons not to give up on winter yet:

1) Long range uncertainty. Pattern change not expected until at least the 20th, which is still 2 weeks away.

2) SSW causing models to struggle with the upcoming pattern change.

3) Even with all of this, there are still strong signals for a -PNA/-EPO/-NAO in the ensembles.

4) We are in a -ENSO/+QBO state.

5) Its only January 7th and February has delivered as of recent.

When looking at these five points, its rather perplexing that anybody would think winter is over. But each to their own.

Its o.k. Jr. to give up It'll only hurt for abit. Maybe Gumps has an extra bottle of Vitog to help you through it.

[SouthSardiswx]

No fight yet but knit picking has begun on the AF, l expect an all out brawl after tonight's major flip in the models to milder solutions.

[tyweather]

GEFS coast to coast cold at the end.

[AbbyJr]

18z GEFS day 10, 11 and 12. This is not a -PNA. Ridge axis is offshore, but the longwave trough is stuck east of the rockies.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-0042400.png

[SouthSardiswx]

GEFS coast to coast cold at the end.

384 chances to fail.

[SouthSardiswx]

Move to the Similkameen. They get feeeeeeeeeeeetz of snow there.

Nah no room in Hawks outhouse cabin.

[SouthSardiswx]

Winter cancel?

CEBA6CFA-9BE8-4AD5-9884-FB252AD5824D.png

[wetcoast91]

I got a whole lot of forks. Some edible. Some put into tropical themed horderves. I also have some tropical drinks here. All you need to do is take a leap of faith into spring. Join me down here...join me. I insist!

[PortKells]

18z GEFS day 10, 11 and 12. This is not a -PNA. Ridge axis is offshore, but the longwave trough is stuck east of the rockies.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

PNA is forecast to go negative right after that. I’m really not expecting anything until the 22nd or a few days later. But yes this could easily stiff us and make us wait for February.

[Michael1]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/weather/ ... index.html

[AbbyJr]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/weather/ ... index.html

Quote from the article:

"We actually had two events in the recent past that shows this contrast. There was a major SSW event in February 2018 and one in January 2019, and the after effects of each were very different," Furtado said. Furtado says we had cold and stormy weather for much of the central and eastern regions of North America following the 2018 event, but minimal effects were felt in North America following the 2019 event.

[Michael1]

Quote from the article:

lol, that's because this article probably came from CNN Atlanta or CNN New York- if they didn't get affected in 2019, then they think no one else did either! I recall it differently out here

[SouthSardiswx]

I got a whole lot of forks. Some edible. Some put into tropical themed horderves. I also have some tropical drinks here. All you need to do is take a leap of faith into spring. Join me down here...join me. I insist!

l did take a leap but fell flat on my face.

[Typeing3]

Quote from the article:

To much of the media...the west does not exist.