January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

I've seen the SST temp anomaly compared to 2012 today.

[AbbyJr]

The not so accurate euro weeklies also show a lack of blocking in Alaska. That SSW better throw some blocking up there or it’s a no go for arctic air.

Honestly its pathetic that we even need a SSW for GOA blocking in a -ENSO/+QBO state. Is our climate really this awful now?

[wetcoast91]

Honestly its pathetic that we even need a SSW for GOA blocking in a -ENSO/+QBO state. Is our climate really this awful now?

Thing is...you don't need strong high lattitude blocking to get snow. You need it to get extremely cold.

The +AO +EPO config can be prevelent in a -ENSO. This itself has been a major issue in Dec and Jan.

[Antares]

Honestly its pathetic that we even need a SSW for GOA blocking in a -ENSO/+QBO state. Is our climate really this awful now?

Nothing to do with climate change.

It's just how the dice fell this time around. System state got in a rut and only now are we seeing some possible changes.

[AbbyJr]

Thing is...you don't need strong high lattitude blocking to get snow. You need it to get extremely cold.

The +AO +EPO config can be prevelent in a -ENSO. This itself has been a major issue in Dec and Jan.

True. IIRC, February 2017 didn't feature strong high latitude blocking. Rather, it was a backdoor arctic blast that met up with a stalled low off the Washington coast. There was enough cold in the interior to draw in but we never saw any extreme cold. But it was cold enough to snow and stick. It also helped that the main snow event during that event took place in the evening/overnight hours when solar radiation wasn't an issue.

Edit: After looking at the reanalysis, there actually was a lot of a high latitude blocking during the February 2017 event. It would have been colder had it occurred in December or January.

[Bonovox]

I would be okay with a 2007-08 repeat. Not my first choice though, obviously.

[wetcoast91]

Edit: After looking at the reanalysis, there actually was a lot of a high latitude blocking during the February 2017 event. It would have been colder had it occurred in December or January.

There lies the issue. A cross polar flow and a broad block over the NPAC and no amplication can bring cooler into the region but the systems tend to be weaker and you lose the dynamic cooling to drag snow levels to the surface. It becomes a matter timing and you need nocturnal cooling and perhaps a cold pool in the interior. Feb-March really isnt the best time for such a pattern.

However the passing troughs tend to be more active towards mid Feb with more raditional heating...This is how Feb was super active in SW BC with periodic thunderstorms, hail and snow.

[Monty]

Honestly its pathetic that we even need a SSW for GOA blocking in a -ENSO/+QBO state. Is our climate really this awful now?

I don’t think we need an SSW. The atmosphere is a lot more complicated than that. Too soon to throw in the towel on anything. I imagine the 18z will throw us something tasty to keep us interested

[wetcoast91]

I don’t think we need an SSW. The atmosphere is a lot more complicated than that. Too soon to throw in the towel on anything. I imagine the 18z will throw us something tasty to keep us interested

Grilled pineapple? Here is a good recipe.
https://dinnerthendessert.com/brown-sug ... pineapple/

[Bonovox]

The background state is meant to be chaotic. Sometimes it goes our way, and sometimes not. We still have positive trends developing.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/134 ... 10240?s=20

[Monty]

Grilled pineapple? Here is a good recipe.
https://dinnerthendessert.com/brown-sug ... pineapple/

Kidding aside. I actually really dislike pineapple. Pretty low on the tasty fruit index.

[wetcoast91]

Kidding aside. I actually really dislike pineapple. Pretty low on the tasty fruit index.

I find it totally depends on your background. My parents are Dutch and Irish and always preferred berries. They were never big on tropical fruit or nuts which included Mango, Coconut, Pineapple and Papaya. My brother is the same way.

My spouses parents...completely different.

[Monty]

I find it totally depends on your background. My parents are Dutch and Irish and always preferred berries. They were never big on tropical fruit or nuts which included Mango, Coconut, Pineapple and Papaya. My brother is the same way.

My spouses parents...completely different.

That’s actually pretty funny. I’m half Dutch and dislike Mango, pineapple and papaya. All pretty awful if you ask me. Coconut flavour is okay but I strongly dislike eating it in most cases. It’s an awful texture. I think you’re on to something

[Bonovox]

That's funny. My wife's heritage is Ukrainian, but she loves tropical fruit. I never ate pineapples until I met her.