January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:54 pm +EPO and +PNA. Beauty isnt it? We could see some very warm weather if that ridge pivots a bit further east.
Yes this would be quite the Nina winter lol. Bring on the warm ridging next!! Go Get em Nito! :clap: :clap:
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April is here and the weather only gets better now 8-)
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:09 pm I appreciate that. I hope it didn't come across preachy. I just don't think we should be name calling. :thumbup:



It is perplexing that anybody would suggest that there is ensemble support for a +PNA in the long range. I mean look at the ensembles. Where is it?

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-9934400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-9956000.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-pna-box-9891200.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-9934400.png
You trying to jinx this thing? GEFS looking ridgier tonight.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:07 pm You trying to jinx this thing? GEFS looking ridgier tonight.
No but I do notice that. Its not concerning me at all though. SSW is still in progress. Models will flip flop.

Still no solid +PNA modelled in the long range ensembles.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:11 pm No but I do notice that. Its not concerning me at all though. SSW is still in progress. Models will flip flop.

Still no solid +PNA modelled in the long range ensembles.
Looks like a solid +PNA on the GFS and Ens. My bet is the ECMWF comes around to this as well.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:11 pm No but I do notice that. Its not concerning me at all though. SSW is still in progress. Models will flip flop.

Still no solid +PNA modelled in the long range ensembles.
Ensembles might look a little better at the very end of week 2. We stole February 2019 from the east. Perhaps this will be their payback.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:17 pm Looks like a solid +PNA on the GFS and Ens. My bet is the ECMWF comes around to this as well.
:blowtor:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

I thought the GEPS looked a bit better tonight. On to the euro.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:25 pm:blowtor:
:blowtor:
:heatmiser: :wsunny: :pinestare: :pinestare: :lsunny: :evilpine:
Last edited by wetcoast91 on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Not a bad ending
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Monty wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:25 pm:blowtor:
:welldone:
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:17 pm Looks like a solid +PNA on the GFS and Ens. My bet is the ECMWF comes around to this as well.
I don't trust any long range solution that far in advance, especially during a SSW. That said, trends tonight on the GEFS aren't encouraging.

But there is no reason to suspect the Euro is going to come around this solution either. My guess is we do see a cold and snowy pattern set up late month or early February at the latest. It will also likely pop up in the models with short notice.

This prolonged SSW is going to drive the models crazy. No way we can have any level of confidence in any given solution at this point, whether it be a 1969 or a 2015 pattern shown.

I should add that even though the trends in the GFS and ensembles aren't encouraging, I don't see a solid +PNA in any of the long term solutions. That said, I don't trust what those models are showing long term anyways. There certainly is a brief +PNA signal in the more believable range, but the discussions as of recent are in the long range possibilities, which clearly favour a -PNA. Whether it works out for us or not is still very much unknown at this point. You can have a -PNA and be stuck with chilly rain. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees we see arctic air and snow.
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1360000.png
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1360000.png
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Last edited by AbbyJr on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:55 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:33 pm I thought the GEPS looked a bit better tonight. On to the euro.
:blowtor: :blowtor:

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Forrest Gump wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:39 pm :welldone:
:lol: well done Gimps.
Join us next season for the 8th annual that's not accurate snowfall contest.

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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

And the torching has begun on the B.C. forums. :crazy:
Join us next season for the 8th annual that's not accurate snowfall contest.

:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 15.0cm :king1: :bravo:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 3.5cm :(
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Re: January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

tyweather wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:36 pm Not a bad ending
Its always 384 chances nothing happens.
Join us next season for the 8th annual that's not accurate snowfall contest.

:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 15.0cm :king1: :bravo:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 3.5cm :(
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