January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The gfs ensembles are extremely bullish for cold for being that far out. The operational are meaningless, please don't put stock into them until we're under 200 hours at the least.

Unfortunately Mr. Kells everyone's given up and gone on vacation until next winter it appears. Oh wait except for Jr.

[AbbyJr]

More improvements on the EPS but I still don't like how close that ridge is setting up towards the mainland.

Still lots of time for a more favourable outcome but the current modelled setup would likely be a dry cold event.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1230400.png

[Catnip]

EPS has trended a bit better today... starting to come a bit more in line with the GEFS.

Last night 00Z:

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12Z:

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[wetcoast91]

Would be pretty rare to see this pattern evolution in 3 of the past 4 years.

I do miss the blasts that used to come from the Pacific/Siberia. Progressively developed blocking never seems to happen nowadays (08 and 17).

[Catnip]

More improvements on the EPS but I still don't like how close that ridge is setting up towards the mainland.

Still lots of time for a more favourable outcome but the current modelled setup would likely be a dry cold event.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1230400.png

Agree, definitely a possibility of this happening.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Sad time below the 49th parallel

[Hawk]

Sad time below the 45th parallel

Sorry hate to say it again...but...MOVE!

[Bonovox]

More improvements on the EPS but I still don't like how close that ridge is setting up towards the mainland.

Still lots of time for a more favourable outcome but the current modelled setup would likely be a dry cold event.

That's actually a pretty good placement. Just need more amplification into Alaska, but those details will resolve themselves. This is a very good trend.

[AbbyJr]

I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The gfs ensembles are extremely bullish for cold for being that far out. The operational are meaningless, please don't put stock into them until we're under 200 hours at the least.

Agreed. Still lots of potential. I think people are just so used to climo winning out that they give up easy.

[Bonovox]

Look at the agreement between the EPS and GEFS.

[Walth]

Agreed. Still lots of potential. I think people are just so used to climo winning out that they give up easy.

Just adding a signature...

#throwawayclimo

[SouthSardiswx]

Time is running out for a major lowland snow event until February or March. The stormy wet pattern looks to be ending soon but may be replaced by a ridge. Would love if it was a cold arctic high and not a fog inversion type pattern. The sudden stratospheric warming in the arctic should weaken the polar jet, wobbling the jet stream and pumping up a ridge on the west coast. Polar vortex in the East and the snow lovers are rejoicing there for the mid to late month period. We may be far enough North to see some storms over the top of the ridge but it won't be great for a snowy pattern. So, say that pattern lasts 10-20 days which is standard for the type of pattern so that takes us to February. Likely an AR to replace the ridge pattern at that time of year. That pattern usually lasts a few days so we basically have a 4 week window from early February through first week of March. After that it's basically Spring. Could happen like 2018 and 2017 both saw snow events in February.

Ah another spectacular read by C79 and his once a season synopsis see ya in the spring.

[SouthSardiswx]

Just adding a signature...

#throwawayclimo

Let me slip a cheque under it.

[SouthSardiswx]

I am very sceptical I’ll need a few more runs before I am back

Good to hear John we need you back on board.

[wetcoast91]

Can we get a thunderstorm soon?