January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

Dec 24 2020 in the Simikameens. 22" snowfall in 24 hours
Non wet snow as usual. Very dense snow too..not the usual powdery variety. This snowfall occurred at 0 to -1c.

[Catnip]

Wet!

Nito, when do we get to dry out?

DFD694AE-3704-4FF4-97D2-4474D51B3D89.png

[Catnip]

Drippy day on the mountains this morning.

https://youtu.be/YWyUuLjnVS8

[Monty]

Drippy day on the mountains this morning.

https://youtu.be/YWyUuLjnVS8

Mount Washington is getting Nuked this morning. That little bit extra north tends to help them out in these setups.

I would assume the snow level will plummet on the north shore later today. Models have been showing some lowland snow just east of Seattle tonight.

[Michael1]

Mount Washington is getting Nuked this morning. That little bit extra north tends to help them out in these setups.

I would assume the snow level will plummet on the north shore later today. Models have been showing some lowland snow just east of Seattle tonight.

https://www.mountwashington.ca/alpine-cam.html

[wetcoast91]

Mount Washington is getting Nuked this morning. That little bit extra north tends to help them out in these setups.

I would assume the snow level will plummet on the north shore later today. Models have been showing some lowland snow just east of Seattle tonight.

Gooder news is the morning model runs are less bullish about warmth next week. Looks like wet snow up on the ski hills but it beats rain.

No change for the extended outlook. The latest SSW appears to have minimal impact in North America. Gets cold in UK and Soviet Union though.

Wet!

Nito, when do we get to dry out?

DFD694AE-3704-4FF4-97D2-4474D51B3D89.png

11-15 days from now. Could be an extended period of ridging to follow this wet episode.

[Monty]

Gooder news is the morning model runs are less bullish about warmth next week. Looks like wet snow up on the ski hills but it beats rain.

No change for the extended outlook. The latest SSW appears to have minimal impact in North America. Gets cold in UK and Soviet Union though.



11-15 days from now. Could be an extended period of ridging to follow this wet episode.

No one knows where the cold is going once the SSW is complete. Model skill will be lower than usual right now. Not saying it’s going to pay off for us but I’m not putting a lot of stock in the 15 day stuff right now. Having said that, the Aleutian low is looking like a tough nut to crack.

[AbbyJr]

No one knows where the cold is going once the SSW is complete. Model skill will be lower than usual right now. Not saying it’s going to pay off for us but I’m not putting a lot of stock in the 15 day stuff right now. Having said that, the Aleutian low is looking like a tough nut to crack.

Exactly. The long range models won't pick up on the SSW until after its complete. What we are seeing in the models now is totally consistent with a Siberian SSW event. Michael Ventrice showed this in his video. I'll post another link to it in the "Weather Links" thread.

But I am baffled why so many people are convinced this SSW won't effect North America and or the PNW, when history tells us its rare for one of these events to not deliver the goods for us.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Team 10°C Rain wins again!

[Hound]

Almost 2 days of rain right up top of all the North Shore ski hills. THAT sucks. At least snow up there for F sakes!

[wetcoast91]

Almost 2 days of rain right up top of all the North Shore ski hills. THAT sucks. At least snow up there for F sakes!

ECMWF brings on more melt. Very mild and wet signal in days 8 to 10. Potential AR event with no real indices to progess the pattern. Was hoping to see some semblance of jet retraction and block development over Western NA.

Maybe a blessing in disguise to keep people out of the Mountains?

[Monty]

ECMWF brings on more melt. Very mild and wet signal in days 8 to 10. Potential AR event with no real indices to progess the pattern. Was hoping to see some semblance of jet retraction and block development over Western NA.

Maybe a blessing in disguise to keep people out of the Mountains?

Why are we wanting to keep people out of the mountains

[Hawk]

Blobby appears to dictate our climate moreso than LaNina. I'm still waiting for her to show up somewhere, sometime. And not in mid February with spring temps already in place.

[wetcoast91]

Why are we wanting to keep people out of the mountains

Many people are electing to go into the back country to escape the packed runs on the local ski hills. NS Search and Rescue are responding daily to people getting lost back there. Heightened avalanche concerns only add to the danger...

[tyweather]

Almost 2 days of rain right up top of all the North Shore ski hills. THAT sucks. At least snow up there for F sakes!

Wet snow at Sasquatch this morning. Temperature looks to be dropping. It was mixed at the base this morning. My nephew is there today. I am glad for him that it is snowing.

I haven't been there since they replaced the chair. Interesting charlift that they have there. It has a conveyor belt for loading people.