February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:42 pm

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:39 pm If the temperature rises to 5C but the dew point stays around -5, would the 5C still be enough to cause snowmelt? Or would the low dew point keep the ground frozen?

Still melt Jr. but slower in shaded areas due to low dewpoints. Abbywx would know more.l would think.

Antares · Post by **Antares** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:51 pm

Down to 33F already. Cooled down quite quickly.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:57 pm

Antares wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:51 pm Down to 33F already. Cooled down quite quickly.

36F here currently. High of 38F earlier today.

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:58 pm

T3 what's your idea going forward, Friday's system looks impressive snow wise for most areas.

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:59 pm

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:57 pmanymore 36F here currently. High of 38F earlier today.

Are we not metric anymore.

Willoughby · Post by **Willoughby** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:59 pm

Even the EC 4pm update has pulled back a bit on the rain.
Still think this should be a total snow event for 95%+ of the LM and if precip intensity picks up, should be a 4Ã¢â‚¬Â+ event too. Only caveat if temps spike a bit due to radiational heating, even heavy precip accumulation may limit somewhat.

VanCitySouth · Post by **VanCitySouth** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:02 pm

Willoughby wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:59 pm Even the EC 4pm update has pulled back a bit on the rain.
Still think this should be a total snow event for 95%+ of the LM and if precip intensity picks up, should be a 4Ã¢â‚¬Â+ event too. Only caveat if temps spike a bit due to radiational heating, even heavy precip accumulation may limit somewhat.

The key is not to have a snowfall warning until much too late.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:03 pm

Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:58 pm T3 what's your idea going forward, Friday's system looks impressive snow wise for most areas.

On the fence for Friday's event as of now. The system will definitely be carrying more moisture than tomorrow; however, it will be packing an onshore component.

Going forward past Fri/Sat...I'm thinking another cold/dry shot early next week and a slow moderation as the ridge offshore begins to nudge closer to the coast.

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:06 pm

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:03 pm On the fence for Friday's event as of now. The system will definitely be carrying more moisture than tomorrow; however, it will be packing an onshore component.

Going forward past Fri/Sat...I'm thinking another cold/dry shot early next week and a slow moderation as the ridge offshore begins to nudge closer to the coast.

Yeah my thoughts exactly.

Post by **Catnip** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:10 pm

00Z Nam:

Shows it starting out as snow and turning to rain and or mix.

namconus_asnow_nwus_11.png

3km Nam showing very little in terms of snowfall for Metro Van.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:11 pm

Looks like the flurries/light snow could develop very early tomorrow morning across parts of the valley

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_10.png

By 10AM, most of the lower mainland should be seeing snow.

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_18.png

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:12 pm

Catnip wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:10 pm 00Z Nam:

Shows it starting out as snow and turning to rain and or mix.

namconus_asnow_nwus_11.png

This event is looking extremely marginal for those close to sea level in Vancouver, Richmond or Delta.

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:13 pm

Catnip wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:10 pm 00Z Nam:

Shows it starting out as snow and turning to rain and or mix.

namconus_asnow_nwus_11.png

It also is wetter the the 18z and keeps the northern areas as snow longer.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:14 pm

For now I'm thinking...

Vancouver/Burnaby: 1-3cm
Richmond/Delta: tr-2cm
North Shore: 2-4cm
Coquitlam/Surrey: 3-5cm
Maple Ridge/Mission/Abbotsford: 5-10cm
Chilliwack: 5-10cm

Post by **Catnip** » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:15 pm

The time of year is starting to work against us, especially with these marginal setups.

February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

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