December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Yeah maybe December 2021 will bring the goods. It would be quite the streak if this run of crap Decembers continues any longer.

Its basically just the new November now isn't it? Arctic blast every 5 years or so. 2016 is getting further in the rear view mirror already and it wasn't THAT epic to begin with. Before that, I guess 2013? then 2009? Just sad stuff really. Thats why Im extra glad people at least got something out of this little event just passed.

[Typeing3]

Currently -0.6c here in east coquitlam.

Temp has hovered between 0c and -1c since ~7pm.

[Monty]

Currently -0.6c here in east coquitlam.

Temp has hovered between 0c and -1c since ~7pm.

It has basically been similarly flatlined here since just after sunset. Between 0 and -1.2C. Pretty cloudy at times so that’s not helping.

[Monty]

Haven’t seen a day 15 EPS in awhile. Bono or catnip? Although if we do see an SSW, long range models will be more useless than usual.

[AbbyJr]

Haven’t seen a day 15 EPS in awhile. Bono or catnip? Although if we do see an SSW, long range models will be more useless than usual.

The question I have is what are the odds that a SSW will actually result in an arctic outbreak in our regions?

We know arctic air will likely go south but does it go SW into BC or SE into the prairies?

Does anybody have a list of analogs for historical SSW events in -ENSO/+QBO winters?

I'd be interested in seeing how many of them actually triggered an arctic blast in Western Canada.

[SouthSardiswx]

Sure quiet in here this morning like an echo. kind of a downer after Monday's excitement.

[stuffradio]

Sure quiet in here this morning like an echo. kind of a downer after Monday's excitement.

We're all waiting for our BC Recovery Benefit cheques to arrive.

[wetcoast91]

The question I have is what are the odds that a SSW will actually result in an arctic outbreak in our regions?

We know arctic air will likely go south but does it go SW into BC or SE into the prairies?

Does anybody have a list of analogs for historical SSW events in -ENSO/+QBO winters?

I'd be interested in seeing how many of them actually triggered an arctic blast in Western Canada.

SW BC has actually done well without SSW episodes. The persistent AK Vortex and Greenland blocking and displacement of that PV leads me to think BC would see a quick hitter with the cold air pooling in the midwest and SE states.

[Bonovox]

Haven’t seen a day 15 EPS in awhile. Bono or catnip? Although if we do see an SSW, long range models will be more useless than usual.

00z EPS.

[wetcoast91]

00z EPS.

That wouldn't be too bad. Really chilly zonal flow towards the end of. It would drive snow levels down and bring in some pretty dynamic systems. Pretty similar to 2007-2008, especially the Jan-Feb period. That winter was pretty eventful up at SFU.

[East Chilliwack]

That wouldn't be too bad. Really chilly zonal flow towards the end of. It would drive snow levels down and bring in some pretty dynamic systems. Pretty similar to 2007-2008, especially the Jan-Feb period. That winter was pretty eventful up at SFU.

A winter like 07-08 would be amazing! We had loads of snow that winter and it kept hitting refresh.

[Monty]

The question I have is what are the odds that a SSW will actually result in an arctic outbreak in our regions?

We know arctic air will likely go south but does it go SW into BC or SE into the prairies?

Does anybody have a list of analogs for historical SSW events in -ENSO/+QBO winters?

I'd be interested in seeing how many of them actually triggered an arctic blast in Western Canada.

I’m not well versed in the SSW world but I’d guess the odds are 50/50 it would benefit us substantially. I’m not too sure anybody really knows until after things start unfolding, although I’m sure people will speculate. Look at feb 2019, it was an El Niño and everyone thought the cold would go east and it didn’t.

Nice looking pattern on the EPS for disturbing the PV. Scandinavian ridge and an Aleutian low. I’m not sure why but I’ve heard the PV doesn’t like that.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

-2.8ËšC. Coldest of the season so far.

[wetcoast91]

All the models seem to suggest a weak outflow with temps below 925mb near freezing yet output suggest it being all rain this weekend up to 1000m. It's -15C in Princeton right now...

Models are bringing cold pool air late Mon and Tues before a mild system arrives Wednesday.

[tyweather]

Interesting write-up about Monday's storm:

Meteorologically, it was an unusual storm. It produced snowfall at low elevations without any notable cold air in place prior to the storm, and without the arrival of arctic air. Snowfall occurred in areas with heaviest precipitation rates and due to the storm centre tracking directly along the BC/WA border, precipitation rates were heavier in areas where they are typically lighter, and lighter in areas where they are typically heavier. The storm centre also deepened is it moved inland, whereas most landfalling lows reach peak strength at landfall then weaken as they move inland. Wind speeds were also notable, especially in the interior. It was also a challenging storm to predict. Model forecasts 3 to 4 days before the storm were erratic and it wasn’t until the day before the storm (Sunday) that models converged and meteorologists became more confident in the details.