December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

12Z Euro still snowy for Abbotsford. I still don't buy it.

[Snowman]

Snowfall warning for 10-20 cm for the Okanagan. Hard to believe as it is currently 10 degrees outside. Curious to see if it verifies.. Hopefully some surprises for the Lower Mainland tomorrow!

[Bonovox]

18z NAM is coming in a touch north again.

[Bonovox]

18z NAM is coming in a touch north again.

3km NAM is a bit different.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12Z Euro still snowy for Abbotsford. I still don't buy it.

I wouldn’t be so dismissive. I have found that when you have both the GFS and the Euro agreeing on something just a day out, it typically verifies. Mind you, for a variety of reasons, you won’t see the amounts forecast accumulate on the ground, but at this stage I’m expecting to get something, and the models have been slightly more favorable for your location than mine. I bet you’ll see something.

[Bonovox]

3km NAM is a bit different.

[AbbyJr]

I wouldn’t be so dismissive. I have found that when you have both the GFS and the Euro agreeing on something just a day out, it typically verifies. Mind you, for a variety of reasons, you won’t see the amounts forecast accumulate on the ground, but at this stage I’m expecting to get something, and the models have been slightly more favorable for your location than mine. I bet you’ll see something.

Good point. It's just that my region usually does poorly during marginal events. The Euro and GFS both show over 10 cm, which obviously is overdone given incorrect snow ratios on the maps.
But perhaps cold rain and a few slushy cm on non paved surfaces?

[Esquimalt39]

Nice thanks for this. How are totals looking?

[Bonovox]

3km NAM is a bit different.

[AbbyJr]

Is this for real?

[Typeing3]

Zilch along the fraser river flats and along the immediate coast. Other than that, it's a definite improvement for Metro Vancouver.

[Storm]

And it's begun the northern treck, it always does.

[AbbyJr]

Ok if it snows in Abbotsford Monday Mr. Sardines had to give me back my privileges.

[Bonovox]

Zilch along the fraser river flats and along the immediate coast. Other than that, it's a definite improvement for Metro Vancouver.

It is interesting it is showing more over Southern Metro Vancouver. There must be some convergence at play here leading to some higher precip rates.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It is interesting it is showing more over Southern Metro Vancouver. There must be some convergence at play here leading to some higher precip rates.

Northerly flow means downsloping off the Coast Mountains will hurt those closest to them. Get away from the mountains and that suppressive effect lessens. Flipside of why this is forecast to be so good for the northern Olympic Peninsula.