December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Yeah a track 50-100 km south for that little cluster over Victoria would bring a region wide snowstorm (for southern BC that is)

A ton of cold rain and wet non accumulating snow for the mainland and island even with a relatively strong low taking that track. We'd have brisk NE winds at the surface but there's absolutely no cold air in the interior right now. A lot like December 19th, 2017.

[PortKells]

A ton of cold rain and wet non accumulating snow for the mainland and island even with a relatively strong low taking that track. We'd have brisk NE winds at the surface but there's absolutely no cold air in the interior right now. A lot like December 19th, 2017.

Minus the Arctic air that followed it.

[Typeing3]

Minus the Arctic air that followed it.

I don't recall there being any real push of arctic air in the days that followed. How low did 850mb temps drop?

Edit: Yeah, no arctic air at all. Temps hit 5.5C at YVR on the 22nd.

[Esquimalt39]

We could make a run at a Nito approved 20 on southern Vancouver island

DF6884E6-FC03-42AD-BE4F-C5C2E5F24390.png

That run was so marginal. I don't even know if it would accumulate here in Victoria despite what the map shows.

[Bonovox]

This is fun to look at.

The 18z GFS brings the low in a little weaker and thus the southerly track.

[Bonovox]

This is fun to look at.

The 18z GFS brings the low in a little weaker and thus the southerly track.

The conditions are marginal, but this can work.

[AbbyJr]

A ton of cold rain and wet non accumulating snow for the mainland and island even with a relatively strong low taking that track. We'd have brisk NE winds at the surface but there's absolutely no cold air in the interior right now. A lot like December 19th, 2017.

Agreed. Even if we get the perfect track, there is absolutely no cold air in the interior at all. Its really hard to get low elevation snow here without any cold outflow. If it takes the track the RGEM and GFS shows, likely heavy cold rain. The GFS is likely overdoing the cold.

[Bonovox]

Agreed. Even if we get the perfect track, there is absolutely no cold air in the interior at all. Its really hard to get low elevation snow here without any cold outflow. If it takes the track the RGEM and GFS shows, likely heavy cold rain. The GFS is likely overdoing the cold.

You don't need any "arctic" air to see accumulating snow in December. Cold onshore flow can do the trick, especially if you are over 50m.

[Esquimalt39]

What do your maps have for total accumulation Bonovox?

[AbbyJr]

The conditions are marginal, but this can work.

Burnaby Mountain and Westwood Plateau would score under a setup like that. But as for areas any lower, it would likely just be lots of cold rain. No cold air at all in the interior as of yet. Its hard to get low elevation snows here without arctic air being in place or significant cold rushing out of the canyon. Its possible I suppose with a cold enough trough but its very rare and given its the GFS showing it, I wouldn't bet on it. Fun to look at though.

[Bonovox]

What do your maps have for total accumulation Bonovox?

The 10:1 ratio is unrealistic, but still fun to look at.

[Bonovox]

Burnaby Mountain and Westwood Plateau would score under a setup like that. But as for areas any lower, it would likely just be lots of cold rain. No cold air at all in the interior as of yet. Its hard to get low elevation snows here without arctic air being in place or significant cold rushing out of the canyon. Its possible I suppose with a cold enough trough but its very rare and given its the GFS showing it, I wouldn't bet on it. Fun to look at though.

I disagree.

[AbbyJr]

You don't need any "arctic" air to see accumulating snow in December. Cold onshore flow can do the trick, especially if you are over 50m.

Of course its possible, but from my understanding, its rare.

[Esquimalt39]

The 10:1 ratio is unrealistic, but still fun to look at.

Monty gets buried! Holy!

[Typeing3]

Burnaby Mountain and Westwood Plateau would score under a setup like that. But as for areas any lower, it would likely just be lots of cold rain. No cold air at all in the interior as of yet. Its hard to get low elevation snows here without arctic air being in place or significant cold rushing out of the canyon. Its possible I suppose with a cold enough trough but its very rare and given its the GFS showing it, I wouldn't bet on it. Fun to look at though.

We can do well with cold onshore flow. Even sea level.

But 950mb temps look so marginal from the maps Bonovox posted. We'd be relying entirely on precip rates for any real accumulating snow.