December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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wetcoast91
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:36 pm Motherfu**er. Who do we have to kill to get some damn arctic air around here
AGW deniers?
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

PortKells wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:56 pm Just a heads up there are people who get pretty bothered by swearing here.

Not that your frustration isn't 1000% warranted. This is getting pretty old already. The weather gods hate us and I think they use the models to toy with our emotions.

I want to refocus on other hobbies but there is literally nothing else to do other than playing music by myself for the 300th time in a row.
Even sensored swearing 🤬. Alright. I don’t mind toning it down if it’s offensive to someone. My 3 year old dropped the F bomb the other day. It was used properly in a sentence at least. She probably picked it up from my wife and not me.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Monty wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:03 pm Even sensored swearing 🤬. Alright. I don’t mind toning it down if it’s offensive to someone. My 3 year old dropped the F bomb the other day. It was used properly in a sentence at least. She probably picked it up from my wife and not me.
Throwing the wife under the bus! :lol:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

ECMWF weeklies and CFS way too aggressive destroying the AK vortex. This has been the case the past few runs going back to mid Nov. High latitude blocking was never in play in the Nov-Dec and Early Jan period.

We will see what happens in Jan. My guess is we see an opening in late Jan and early Feb with gradual decrease of energy upstream (seasonally induced)
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:03 pm Even sensored swearing 🤬. Alright. I don’t mind toning it down if it’s offensive to someone. My 3 year old dropped the F bomb the other day. It was used properly in a sentence at least. She probably picked it up from my wife and not me.
My four old said “smarten the f*** up” to my 2 year old a few weeks ago. No comment on who she may have picked it up from, but it took everything for me not to laugh.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:05 pm ECMWF weeklies and CFS way too aggressive destroying the AK vortex. This has been the case the past few runs going back to mid Nov. High latitude blocking was never in play in the Nov-Dec and Early Jan period.

We will see what happens in Jan. My guess is we see an opening in late Jan and early Feb with gradual decrease of energy upstream (seasonally induced)
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Bonovox wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:17 pm My four old said “smarten the f*** up” to my 2 year old a few weeks ago. No comment on who she may have picked it up from, but it took everything for me not to laugh.
Nothing wrong with swearing, nothing better than letting some steam go.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:17 pm My four old said “smarten the f*** up” to my 2 year old a few weeks ago. No comment on who she may have picked it up from, but it took everything for me not to laugh.
Ours said, “For F sakes, the dog peed behind the chair again. grammatically correct and the dog had peed behind the chair. We had to remove ourselves from the room. It was pretty funny. And then of course have a talk with her so she doesn’t get kicked out of daycare.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

stuffradio wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:04 pm Throwing the wife under the bus! :lol:
She’ll never know. She’s more into tiktok than the weather forums. 🤷🏼
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Monty wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:03 pm Even sensored swearing 🤬. Alright. I don’t mind toning it down if it’s offensive to someone. My 3 year old dropped the F bomb the other day. It was used properly in a sentence at least. She probably picked it up from my wife and not me.
My favorite source when my Dad was working on a project or trying to fix something, and something went wrong.

“F*ck!”

“What does ‘f*ck’ mean, Daddy?”

“Go away!”

And I knew I had just learned another one, even though I had no idea what it meant.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

18z gfs looks like a no go on the snow potential next week. Icon still too far north with the low crossing Vancouver island. Let’s split the difference! C’mon.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Monty wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:02 pm 18z gfs looks like a no go on the snow potential next week. Icon still too far north with the low crossing Vancouver island. Let’s split the difference! C’mon.
Sorry…
no_snow_for_you.jpg
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Esquimalt39 »

Monty wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:02 pm 18z gfs looks like a no go on the snow potential next week. Icon still too far north with the low crossing Vancouver island. Let’s split the difference! C’mon.
The gfs ensembles look the best yet. Does anyone have the chart that shows where the individual lows (all the members) make landfall?
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:08 am You guys got screwed. Unfortunately, the more painful it is around Seattle, the more it snows up here.
Think January 2005, November 2006 and January 2020. All better than 24” snow events here with a slow moving arctic boundary
Metro Vancouver really got skunked in January 2005 compared to you guys on the island.

November 2006 was pretty golden for us though.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

I know models don't look great as of yet for us but one promising thing is the persistent -NAO. If we can keep that up and get the PNA to go negative, then we will be in business. Having the EPO drop negative would be even better. -PNA/-EPO/-NAO would be awesome.

Hope for the best but expect the worse in our climate. :lol: :thumbup:
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