Models seem to be overdoing snow totals. Potential adiabatic cooling post cold front but looks to only be in a PSCZ above 500ft with a deformation band aided by NW winds.
I think Michael and anyone in Campbell River could see a surprise 5cm.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:59 am
Models seem to be overdoing snow totals. Potential adiabatic cooling post cold front but looks to only be in a PSCZ above 500ft with a deformation band aided by NW winds.
I think Michael and anyone in Campbell River could see a surprise 5cm.
Isothermal for the win!
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Monty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:08 am
I’m digging deep to pull up the GFSv16 or whatever upgrade they are trying to do to the GFS now but damn. C’MON
SouthHillFrosty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:38 am
Would make for last year. The south sound only had half an inch last year.
You guys got screwed. Unfortunately, the more painful it is around Seattle, the more it snows up here.
Think January 2005, November 2006 and January 2020. All better than 24†snow events here with a slow moving arctic boundary
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
stuffradio wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:20 am
That's a great birthday present for me!
I hope it delivers. Got 9" on my b-day in 2019 and it was a sweet present. 2nd most I've ever had on my birthday, and more than I expected to get on it in this part of the world.
Monty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:08 am
You guys got screwed. Unfortunately, the more painful it is around Seattle, the more it snows up here.
Think January 2005, November 2006 and January 2020. All better than 24†snow events here with a slow moving arctic boundary
Oh yeah. And those 10:1 ratio snow maps are generally pretty useless given what would be a heavy rain to snow transition. Maybe 5:1, 8:1 if we get lucky. Probably chop those 10:1 map totals in half.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Monty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:21 am
Oh yeah. And those 10:1 ratio snow maps are generally pretty useless given what would be a heavy rain to snow transition. Maybe 5:1, 8:1 if we get lucky. Probably chop those 10:1 map totals in half.
How much do you expect for Vic? I don't personally expect more than a bit of accumulation on the grass.
SouthHillFrosty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:20 am
How much did you guys get up there in Feb 2019
~35â€Â. Max depth around 2 feet
Dec 2008/early January 2009, not sure if you were around for that, we had a little over 60†but the depth topped out a little shy of 30â€Â. I remember measuring around 27-28â€Â
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Esquimalt39 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:24 am
How much do you expect for Vic? I don't personally expect more than a bit of accumulation on the grass.
Pretty much impossible to say with any confidence right now. Lots of spread with where that storm may track. We need it to come north a shade right now. ( this emoji makes me look quite feminine, it’s a guy when I type it but identifies as a female when it posts.)
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Monty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:28 am
~35â€Â. Max depth around 2 feet
Dec 2008/early January 2009, not sure if you were around for that, we had a little over 60†but the depth topped out a little shy of 30â€Â. I remember measuring around 27-28â€Â
Wow you guys killed it up there. Yea I was still living down here at that time and we only got 16 inches total I think.