December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Well said! Yeah if you post on the AF with an objective/realistic mindset, they get mad.

Anyway, I hope this is my last winter in the Lower Mainland. I can't take it here anymore. Hopefully will be posting from somewhere colder soon.

I hear the Similkameeennnn is decent....

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Models still toying with a little wet snow on the north side of the system early next week. Euro has some around Seattle. Gfs has some on S van island. Also a nice shot of chilly air behind it. Could be quite frosty next week.

Wouldn’t be surprised if we do see some snow this month. Also wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t. I really don’t trust the models more than a week out, and that goes equally as much when they are not forecasting snow as when they are.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I really wish there was a town in western Washington between about 500 and 650 m elevation. In other words, cool enough to have a real winter but still generally a mild, coastal climate. If such a place existed, I’d move there.

Hmmm… but it’s on the small side: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenwater,_Washington

[PortKells]

It does suck (and not just the weather).

PG seems like the best all around option in BC, so I will try for there. I know it has its issues though but I'd probably be happier there.

There are definitely social issues in the caribou but it has a nice climate and beautiful scenery. I grew up (1-9) down the road in Williams lake. Nice little community but once again struggles with poverty and social/economic issues.

[Typeing3]

GEPS for the end of the year.

geps_z500_anom_noram_384.png

We need a SE ridge!

[AbbyJr]

Respectively disagree. No one is really that negative on here (even Nito - he's just joking around half the time).

Honestly, it's worse on the american forum - they get all wrapped up and emotionally invested in fantasy events that are 10+ days away and when the models shift, many go into depression.

Most people on here are realistic. Do we all want a January 1950 repeat? Of course! If you get your hopes pinned on that though, you'll continually be disappointed.

The fact is, we haven't had a cold January (i.e. average temp below 0c at YVR) since 1993. It's a lot more realistic to forecast climo, because 9/10 times that's what happens.

When people mention analogues like 1998-99 or 1999-00, it's not being negative at all because there's a decent chance this winter does go down that route.

You make valid points.

That is, people on here aren't being negative but rather realistic to avoid major disappointment that leads to negativity. This being contrary to the American forums, where they get all emotionally invested in long range fantasy outliers and then go into a meltdown when they don't verify.

On our forum, however, we encourage people to hope for the best but to not get wrapped up in these fantasy outliers. Rather, go with climo unless there is compelling evidence to suggest otherwise. So if the majority of reliable models and ensembles consistently show a January 1950 block within a few days of the modelled timeframe, then we get excited. But otherwise its just fantasy and not worth overhyping.

Essentially, being realistic is not being negative. But being unrealistic can lead to negativity because it incites major disappointment.

Okay. I agree. Thanks for the insight.

[Catnip]

We need a SE ridge!

ridge.png

[Bonovox]

All need now is Nito agreeing with the agreement and we are all set.

I prefer Monty.

[Bonovox]

I knew there would be a last minute miracle!

[Hound]

****ing 12Z gfs. Starting to get somewhat concerned that this is 2017/2018 all over again. Somehow a winter predicted to be all west coast magically turns into an east coast special.

Big surprise heh.. "We Are The Anus"... sang to "I Am The Walrus" by The Beatles

[AbbyJr]

ridge.png

Okay who sent that map to the Trump administration?

[Monty]

I really wish there was a town in western Washington between about 500 and 650 m elevation. In other words, cool enough to have a real winter but still generally a mild, coastal climate. If such a place existed, I’d move there.

Hmmm… but it’s on the small side: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenwater,_Washington

Skykomish gets a lot of snow. Holds onto the cold pretty well

[Monty]

I prefer Monty.

Well I think we are due for some Decent meridional stuff in January for a change. But time will tell. I like our chances this year.

[stuffradio]

Welcome to the new users! Don't be shy and say hi

[SouthHillFrosty]

Skykomish gets a lot of snow. Holds onto the cold pretty well

Skykomish is in the mountains and pretty secluded. There is not really anything by the coast that will get you a lot of snow. Best bet might be the hood canal area. However, that is not near the coast but you are near water!