December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Nice to see some of the pcs in place. Of course this far out who knows what will happen.

GEFS Ensembles North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

[Typeing3]

I’ve been pretty pessimistic for awhile about our chances this December. Colder and possibly drier January and chilly wet February.

Agreed. This will be a backloaded winter; accumulating snow threat will linger into April this season IMO...like 2008.

[Catnip]

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[Monty]

Nice to see some of the pcs in place. Of course this far out who knows what will happen.

GEFS Ensembles North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

Pretty good. Dig a little short wave down the coast and we are in business.

Blob won’t matter if the flow is offshore you know.

[Monty]

What does the euro show for temps next week. That looks like some 4/-4 type weather after the Monday system.

[AbbyJr]

Agreed. This will be a backloaded winter; accumulating snow threat will linger into April this season IMO...like 2008.

Some of our greatest winters were backloaded. If these forums existed and people had easy access to models back then, there would have been a lot of December winter cancels. But then January came and redeemed it all.

I think our struggle is how poorly January has performed as of recent, so we get nervous when we don't see anything in December.

But no reason history can't repeat itself. January 2021 with be what 2020 was supposed to be. Think cold and snow.

[Catnip]

Some of our greatest winters were backloaded. If these forums existed and people had easy access to models back then, there would have been a lot of December winter cancels. But then January came and redeemed it all.

I think our struggle is how poorly January has performed as of recent, so we get nervous when we don't see anything in December.

But no reason history can't repeat itself. January 2021 with be what 2020 was supposed to be. Think cold and snow.

C'MON!!!!!!!!!

[Catnip]

Kinda similar to the GEFS.

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

[Bonovox]

What does the euro show for temps next week. That looks like some 4/-4 type weather after the Monday system.

Fairly chilly Wednesday.

[Catnip]

GEPS for the end of the year.

geps_z500_anom_noram_384.png

[Bonovox]

Starting to see some agreement between all 3 ensembles for building heights off the west coast. Details differ, but things are starting to take shape.

This is the 5 day 500mb anomaly from the EPS, GEFS and GEPS for days 10-15.

[Storm]

Starting to see some agreement between all 3 ensembles for building heights off the west coast. Details differ, but things are starting to take shape.

This is the 5 day 500mb anomaly from the EPS, GEFS and GEPS for days 10-15.

All need now is Nito agreeing with the agreement and we are all set.

[Antares]

Respectively disagree. No one is really that negative on here (even Nito - he's just joking around half the time).

Honestly, it's worse on the american forum - they get all wrapped up and emotionally invested in fantasy events that are 10+ days away and when the models shift, many go into depression.

Most people on here are realistic. Do we all want a January 1950 repeat? Of course! If you get your hopes pinned on that though, you'll continually be disappointed.

The fact is, we haven't had a cold January (i.e. average temp below 0c at YVR) since 1993. It's a lot more realistic to forecast climo, because 9/10 times that's what happens.

When people mention analogues like 1998-99 or 1999-00, it's not being negative at all because there's a decent chance this winter does go down that route.

Well said! Yeah if you post on the AF with an objective/realistic mindset, they get mad.

Anyway, I hope this is my last winter in the Lower Mainland. I can't take it here anymore. Hopefully will be posting from somewhere colder soon.

[PortKells]

Well said! Yeah if you post on the AF with an objective/realistic mindset, they get mad.

Anyway, I hope this is my last winter in the Lower Mainland. I can't take it here anymore. Hopefully will be posting from somewhere colder soon.

It sucks eh? Where are you thinking of going?

[Antares]

It sucks eh? Where are you thinking of going?

It does suck (and not just the weather).

PG seems like the best all around option in BC, so I will try for there. I know it has its issues though but I'd probably be happier there.