Winter 2020-2021

[Catnip]

9B20BA5A-627F-4866-A2A0-2023A32B5324.jpeg

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 89760?s=19

[PortKells]

My prediction is very active and persistently wet conditions. 1 legit arctic blast and 1 or 2 marginal ones. Several chances at lowland snow from onshore flow. Ski hills do well above average, avalanche season will be quite active.

Total snow for the LM is a crapshoot but im going to go with above or around the long term average with a few areas potentially missing out due to topography and whatnot, but maybe some big winners too.

Timing, im hoping for a December blast but its once again a crapshoot. January would be great too again obviously. I dont want to wait for February to save us again, but if it does then Feb 2017 style will do. I have this weird feeling about mid December this year, we'll have to wait and see.

I hope im underselling this winter and it turns into the amazing epic that a lot of people are expecting. But our climate is very difficult for getting those winters. It could very well be a giant bust. 99-2000 is on my mind a bit here.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/griteater/status/13 ... 59649?s=19

[Catnip]

FWIW, I've been keeping an eye on the CFS monthly forecasts and they seem to be trending cooler as we head towards winter. December was showing as above normal not too long ago.

dec.png

jan.png

feb.png

march.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Nice gotta love the trends.

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 48992?s=21

[Typeing3]

From another forum

[PortKells]

From another forum

One of the qualifiers is <55 sunspots from July to June? Seems fairly arbitrary.

[Michael1]

One of the qualifiers is <55 sunspots from July to June? Seems fairly arbitrary.

Well, exactly, since those sunspots were largely stable and many disintegrated after a few days.

[tyweather]

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vanc ... er-3145710

Let it snow: Environment Canada calls for colder, snowy winter in Metro Vancouver

Vancouver Snowcast
Freezing levels will also be lower due to colder temperatures, which means that there is a greater likelihood the Lower Mainland will see snow around sea level. In addition, the proportion of snow to rain is typically higher during a La Niña pattern.

"You get three or four different snow events, as opposed to just kind of half an event or one event in the winter and it kind of returns to slush right away like on a regular winter," adds Castellan.

"You're stacking the deck, in terms of getting snow, maybe more frequently or longer because it might be cold after, and then you can have snow to toboggan for a few days, not just a one-hit-wonder."

December is expected to be the "oddball" in Metro Vancouver's meteorological winter forecast, and Castellan says snow is likely in the months that follow.

[Typeing3]

Final weatherbell winter forecast. Warm december followed by a chilly January and February for us (around 1.5c-2.5c below normal).

December_2020_February_2021_Forecast_Final.png

January_2021_Forecast_Update.png

February_2021_Forecast.png

Analogues:

1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1995-96 (x2)
1998-99 (x2)
1999-00
2005-06
2007-08 (x2)
2010-11
2017-18

[AbbyJr]

Final weatherbell winter forecast. Warm december followed by a chilly January and February for us (around 1.5c-2.5c below normal).
December_2020_February_2021_Forecast_Final.png
January_2021_Forecast_Update.png
February_2021_Forecast.png

Analogues:

1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1995-96 (x2)
1998-99 (x2)
1999-00
2005-06
2007-08 (x2)
2010-11
2017-18

What does x2 refer too?

[Typeing3]

What does x2 refer too?

They double weighted those winters when making the map. Those are top three analogues.

[AbbyJr]

They double weighted those winters when making the map. Those are top three analogues.

Thanks

All those best analogs were solid. I'd say 1998/99 was the worst but it was still a lot better than 1999/00.