December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

tyweather wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:13 am Clown range alert?

Image
Just saw that. Finally even just some eye candy to look at. That Bellingham snow ensemble is intriguing too. Thats not very far away.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hawk wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 7:45 am The next 10 days looks promising for the Similkameen. I will be there over the holidays. As i have said before, you guys should book a vacation there for a few days mid winter to experience almost guaranteed winter victories! Heck, even Nito may enjoy going there for a resounding defeat and his pineapples freezing solid like a couple of oversized grenades hahaha.
I'm keeping an eye on the tracks of several Lows that will cross the area over the next several days..hoping the snow keeps piling up! :clap: :clap:
Border still closed, dammit.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Dec 10, 2020 11:37 pm I think he just likes to cause drama. Its unfortunate. :thumbdown: Best to ignore it rather than respond and give him the negative attention he is seeking.
I just got him to complain that I was “irritating.” LOL.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

I'm honestly not sure how some of you can spend more than a minute or two on there. It is the same people bickering back and forth about the same thing day in and day out... year after year after year. One good model run and the next ice age is coming!

You certainly have more patience than I do.

:lol: :lol:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am A few model runs showing vaguely promising trends a week or or more out, so of course the American forum is talking about a replay of 1950 again. It’s hilarious.
I know some of them are really...special. but are you sure they're not just messing around a lot of the time?
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:45 am I'm honestly not sure how some of you can spend more than a minute or two on there. It is the same people bickering back and forth about the same thing day in and day out... year after year after year. One good model run and the next ice age is coming!

You certainly have more patience than I do.

:lol: :lol:
There's good posters there and maps and it's quite entertaining.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:46 am I know some of them are really...special. but are you sure they're not just messing around a lot of the time?
Who knows? I’m not the best at getting non-linguistic cues to start with, and when you start communicating in print that gets even harder.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:46 am I know some of them are really...special. but are you sure they're not just messing around a lot of the time?
They do...
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

PortKells wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:37 am Just saw that. Finally even just some eye candy to look at. That Bellingham snow ensemble is intriguing too. Thats not very far away.
A word of caution: a week or so ago there was a sudden onset of snow in that same ensemble, and I believe it was also exactly a fortnight in the future. Apparently the same thing has also happened for other stations. There’s speculation on the American forum (where I got that), that what we are seeing there is an artifact of the model. If they decrease the resolution two weeks out, then due to elevation averaging KBLI might appear to be a foothill station.

Given that, I would find the runs that show a chance of light snow early next week to be more intriguing.
Last edited by Rubus_Leucodermis on Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:22 am A word of caution: a week or so there was a sudden onset of snow in that same ensemble, and I believe it was also exactly a fortnight in the future. Apparently the same thing has also happened for other stations. There’s speculation on the American forum (where I got that), that what we are seeing there is an artifact of the model. If they decrease the resolution two weeks out, then due to elevation averaging KBLI might appear to be a foothill station.

Given that, I would find the runs that show a chance of light snow early next week to be more intriguing.
Ah gotcha. It does seem early for anything crazy.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:39 am Border still closed, dammit.
I guess you will have to settle on Levenworth. It is worth noting Hawk2 that officially we are not supposed to be travelling to Princeton either with the current health orders from Metro Vancouver.
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:24 am A few model runs showing vaguely promising trends a week or or more out, so of course the American forum is talking about a replay of 1950 again. It’s hilarious.
They are just really hopeful. :lol:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh336_trend.gif
Not a horrible trend?
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:38 am They are just really hypeful. :lol:
FTFY.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Storm wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:06 am There's good posters there and maps and it's quite entertaining.
Yeah, if you wade through the noise there is some pretty good weather talk there. I enjoy it.
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