December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[arbetrader]

Maybe I should remove January 1954 off my list so as to lower my expectations?

And yes January 2020 was pretty impressive in our current climate. But I don't know, the fact that pretty much everywhere surrounding Abbotsford got hammered with snow and I got hardly anything makes it really hard for me to count 2020. But I'm biased obviously.

There was one day last January where the daytime high didn't crack -10 at my place. And I'm in east Abbotsford. I haven't seen that in at least 20 years.

[wetcoast91]

[PortKells]

Last January definitely broke the curse in my book. Getting 14 cm of squeaky-cold dry powder snow one night was the highlight for me. Rarely get that sort of snow in the lowlands. (And didn’t The Wack score nearly 1 m of snow? Definitely an epic winter for them.)

Of course, for those in Seattle and points south, it did not break the curse. In fact, it was something of a bust for them.

Remember when the models had us missing on that blizzard up until about a day out due to a southern track? If Seattle skunked us two years in a row I was going to lose it.

[Storm]

07-08 Burnaby Mountain had a solid 1 meter base for a month. I will take a repeat of that winter.

[PortKells]

I'm about ready to take the GEM out behind the woodshed and put it out of its misery. That thing is on glue. Everything is over amplified.

[Catnip]

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[Storm]

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Beginning of January

[Bonovox]

I'm about ready to take the GEM out behind the woodshed and put it out of its misery. That thing is on glue. Everything is over amplified.

Since the GEM was upgraded, it has generally had better verification scores than the GFS. However, still, the amplification bias is rather pronounced beyond day 5-6.

[Catnip]

Since the GEM was upgraded, it has generally had better verification scores than the GFS. However, still, the amplification bias is rather pronounced beyond day 5-6.

Every model has it’s bias.

[Storm]

Every model has it’s bias.

Can someone post the Ensembles

[Catnip]

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[Typeing3]

There was one day last January where the daytime high didn't crack -10 at my place. And I'm in east Abbotsford. I haven't seen that in at least 20 years.

I'd say this past January was fairly comparable to 2012 out in the valley. Definitely not a 1/20 year type event, even by current climate standards

[Monty]

Since the GEM was upgraded, it has generally had better verification scores than the GFS. However, still, the amplification bias is rather pronounced beyond day 5-6.

Yes it’s pretty good within the 5/6 day range which is how they score these things. I think the top 4 for verification scores are Euro, UKmet, GEM, and GFS in that order.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Temperature was a little wacky overnight here. Sorry about ËšF, 50ËšF is 10ËšC and 40ËšF is 4ËšC if it helps.

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[wetcoast91]

Mild and WET