December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Radar]

111 cm in 2007/08

Not enough

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Rug pulls happen for pretty much every kind of weather. Just some busts are more noticeable than other. If the forecast called for 25mm of rain and it only rained 5mm nobody really cares. If the forecast called for 25-35cm of snow and we only got 5cm. Peoples heads explode.

I know, I was just being snarky. And a surprise snowstorm (they happen!) counts as a rug pull for those counting on a modeled rain forecast to pan out.

[AbbyJr]

2007-2008 brought lots of snow events to areas above 100m. Not sure why many here would oppose that?

2007/2008 was a solid winter. I actually don't know why people would appose it either. That big overrunning snow event at the beginning of December was nice, especially since it was followed by an intense warmup and damaging windstorm. Abbotsford reported a 111 km/h gust from that storm. Pretty dramatic turn of of events. But looking at this winter so far, I have not seen any similarities.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1336 ... 06371?s=20

[Weather101]

2007/2008 was a solid winter. I actually don't know why people would appose it either. That big overrunning snow event at the beginning of December was nice, especially since it was followed by an intense warmup and damaging windstorm. Abbotsford reported a 111 km/h gust from that storm. Pretty dramatic turn of of events. But looking at this winter so far, I have not seen any similarities.

Not everyone lives in Abbotsford

[PortKells]

I wonder if 2011/2012 or 2018/2019 winters might become the closest comparables to this winter. That Alaska Vortex is already looking like its going to be a beast to knock off its mantle and keep off. If we get something here before January it might be a quick hitter just based on how fast things keep progressing at the mid latitudes. Almost feels like waiting until late January or February will be better for an extended blast, not that we have any control over timing at all of course.

I hate that we basically need an SSW for that nice extended blast. Now were waiting on that SSW AND for it to push the cold air our way, unlike say 2015. To the more experienced weather folks...has it always been this difficult to get cold air down here without a SSW?

[Weather101]

I wonder if 2011/2012 or 2018/2019 winters might become the closest comparables to this winter. That Alaska Vortex is already looking like its going to be a beast to knock off its mantle and keep off. If we get something here before January it might be a quick hitter just based on how fast things keep progressing at the mid latitudes. Almost feels like waiting until late January or February will be better for an extended blast, not that we have any control over timing at all of course.

I hate that we basically need an SSW for that nice extended blast. Now were waiting on that SSW AND for it to push the cold air our way, unlike say 2015. To the more experienced weather folks...has it always been this difficult to get cold air down here without a SSW?

it's honestly difficult in general you need so many factors to go right.

[AbbyJr]

it's honestly difficult in general you need so many factors to go right.

The fact that there is a solid chance of a SSW in January gives me hope. If we can pull one off early in the month, we could be looking at a mid month arctic blast. I'm cautiously optimistic that this winter we will finally break the January curse.

[Weather101]

The fact that there is a solid chance of a SSW in January gives me hope. If we can pull one off early in the month, we could be looking at a mid month arctic blast. I'm cautiously optimistic that this winter we will finally break the January curse.

I agree, But maybe it's just me but I kinda count last January as breaking the curse. -8 snowing in the middle of the day was beautiful.

[wetcoast91]

I hate that we basically need an SSW for that nice extended blast. Now were waiting on that SSW AND for it to push the cold air our way, unlike say 2015. To the more experienced weather folks...has it always been this difficult to get cold air down here without a SSW?

For a prolonged arctic blast. Yes.

For snow? It is definitely becoming more obvious that this region needs an arctic blast to at least see foothill snow these days. It generally feels that surface temps are running warmer with frontal systems...

[Monty]

Just a steady light rain all day today here. 14mm to show for it.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I agree, But maybe it's just me but I kinda count last January as breaking the curse. -8 snowing in the middle of the day was beautiful.

Last January definitely broke the curse in my book. Getting 14 cm of squeaky-cold dry powder snow one night was the highlight for me. Rarely get that sort of snow in the lowlands. (And didn’t The Wack score nearly 1 m of snow? Definitely an epic winter for them.)

Of course, for those in Seattle and points south, it did not break the curse. In fact, it was something of a bust for them.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Now 13.3ËšC. Was 15ËšC about an hour ago. Downsloping off the Chuckanuts strikes again.

[AbbyJr]

I agree, But maybe it's just me but I kinda count last January as breaking the curse. -8 snowing in the middle of the day was beautiful.

Maybe I should remove January 1954 off my list so as to lower my expectations?

And yes January 2020 was pretty impressive in our current climate. But I don't know, the fact that pretty much everywhere surrounding Abbotsford got hammered with snow and I got hardly anything makes it really hard for me to count 2020. But I'm biased obviously.

[wetcoast91]

Now 13.3ËšC. Was 15ËšC about an hour ago. Downsloping off the Chuckanuts strikes again.