December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Weather101 wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 10:09 am Better to be realistic
Good point. January 2011 bust :lol:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:43 am Good point. January 2011 bust :lol:
Hopefully not :lol:
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:34 am They are pretty unreliable anyway. I’d bet they have trended warmer in the short term but still look good for January. Those seasonal models lean heavily on ENSO, so they will look Nina like almost for sure.

Those Alaska vortex patterns can be tough to break but it could be good if we ever dislodge the cold once it gets stacked up to our north.
ECMWF weeklies are only right when they predict a depict AK vortex/ +PNA patterns.

I find any troughing that is depicted becomes zonal in closer range.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:46 pm ECMWF weeklies are only right when they predict a depict AK vortex/ +PNA patterns.

I find any troughing that is depicted becomes zonal in closer range.
Absolutely right. Why they even run.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Catnip wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:54 pm 5-10.png
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Zonal until day 35.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

PortKells wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:24 pm Zonal until day 35.
Oh, the weather outside is crappy,
And I didn’t want to disturb your nappy,
But here’s some egg nog to sip,
Let it drip, let it drip, let it drip.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

12z Euro also showing a SSW event occurring over Siberia near day 10. Interesting times ahead.
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Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Mild zonal flow slowly progressing into a chilly zonal flow by early-mid Jan. Potential coast to coast blow torch for xmas.

Looks like bets are off for any cold until 2021. Prime threat of any arctic blast appears to be mid-late Jan based on that run.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:45 pm Mild zonal flow slowly progressing into a chilly zonal flow by early-mid Jan. Potential coast to coast blow torch for xmas.

Looks like bets are off for any cold until 2021. Prime threat of any arctic blast appears to be mid-late Jan based on that run.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:44 pm 12z Euro also showing a SSW event occurring over Siberia near day 10. Interesting times ahead.
For Halifax.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Image
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by hawk2 »

:lol: 8 :lol:
wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:46 pm For Halifax.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

12z GEM is trying.
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Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

From the most recent forecast discussion from NWS Seattle (emphasis added):
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...We should expect temperatures to begin their return back to normal as towards the end of the week. This return will be largely due to a stronger frontal system moving through Thursday. This will bring rain to the lowlands and a few inches of snow at pass level on Thursday. This system will also bring more seasonable temperatures to the area. After the front moves through, there is the potential for some ridging to occur offshore. Moisture would be transported over the ridge crest and down through Western Washington. This moisture will could produce some heavier rain and mountain snow. Moreover, with the trough over the area, providing colder surface temperatures and snow levels dropping to less than 1000 feet in some locations (mostly near Bellingham), there is the potential for snow or rain snow/mix to occur towards the end of the week. This is still a ways out so confidence is low, but it is night three of both deterministic models and ensembles suggesting this.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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