November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

This is pretty much looking like a strong +ENSO pattern like we saw between DJF in 2014- 2015. Models even want to bridge that Greenland and West Coast Rex block...this would lock Europe and the eastern CONUS into a lengthy cold spell (6-8 weeks?). Very unusual to get a sustained +PNA with -1.5 ENSO value. At this point...the ENSO values serve as no real indicator on our climate anymore.



Models even want to introduce some potential mixing to bring the threat of record warmth with a cut off low due south in the 7-10 period.

So we're F***ed? Pack it in? How very 2020.

[Monty]

So we're F***ed? Pack it in? How very 2020.

That looks more like a pattern that will lock in for all of 2021. Nito is being very conservative with his call for 8 weeks of western ridging and arctic air in the east. Could end up being 12 weeks. My sneak peek at Christmas Day is mostly sunny skies and 17C.

[PortKells]

At this point, I'll take the ridging. This ski season is going to be a gongshow regardless of snowpack. Like W101 said, mild and dry is much better than constant drizzle. My farm is already a mud pit at this point. Hold out hope for a pattern change in late December that gives us a solid chance at January/Feb.

[wetcoast91]

At this point, I'll take the ridging. This ski season is going to be a gongshow regardless of snowpack. Like W101 said, mild and dry is much better than constant drizzle. My farm is already a mud pit at this point. Hold out hope for a pattern change in late December that gives us a solid chance at January/Feb.

Going to make a guess that Jan 6th will bring a region wide snowstorm

[wetcoast91]

That looks more like a pattern that will lock in for all of 2021. Nito is being very conservative with his call for 8 weeks of western ridging and arctic air in the east. Could end up being 12 weeks. My sneak peek at Christmas Day is mostly sunny skies and 17C.

I could do +17C and sunny. My Christmas tree would enjoy it as well:

[Typeing3]

Going to make a guess that Jan 6th will bring a region wide snowstorm

You must put a lot of stock in the LRC.

[Monty]

12z GFS is going to dump the arctic air into western NA. The 8 week ridge has been shortened to 10 days.

[wetcoast91]

Outlier.

[Monty]

Outlier.

It will be. Probably jumping the gun. I’m feeling something closer to Christmas.

[wetcoast91]

It will be. Probably jumping the gun. I’m feeling something closer to Christmas.

Dec 2008

Interesting how the inversion late next week really strengthens near the 400m level. Should be a dry start to the week but low lying areas could see some accumulating freezing fog or even spot flurries during the mornings (Thurs/Friday looks like the worst day right now)

[Monty]

Dec 2008

Interesting how the inversion late next week really strengthens near the 400m level. Should be a dry start to the week but low lying areas could see some accumulating freezing fog or even spot flurries during the mornings (Thurs/Friday looks like the worst day right now)

Maybe. Though 2008 started around the 12th IIRC

[Catnip]

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[AbbyJr]

Maybe. Though 2008 started around the 12th IIRC

What is the IIRC?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

What is the IIRC?

If I recall correctly.

[Catnip]

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