November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

Very much acting like a strong +ENSO.

That block and GOA trough looks semi-permanent and seems like a feature that can linger around for 6-8 weeks. I could even see the block on the west coast strengthening if we see SSW by mid Dec.

All we're missing is Hawk shouting pattern lock at us

[AbbyJr]

Very much acting like a strong +ENSO.

That block and GOA trough looks semi-permanent and seems like a feature that can linger around for 6-8 weeks. I could even see the block on the west coast strengthening if we see SSW by mid Dec.

I actually think the SSW would be our best chance at winter weather around here.

[wetcoast91]

I actually think the SSW would be our best chance at winter weather around here.

Towards latter in the JFM, perhaps. SSW in the current state would split the PV into siberia and the eastern CONUS, only further locking in the west coast ridge. This is exactly what happened in Feb 2015.

[Monty]

I’ve heard there is no cold air in the arctic this year anyways, due to lack of sea ice. So even if there is an SSW it won’t get cold anywhere. We are screwed.

.......this is sarcasm.

Pretty doubtful we see ridge locked in over the west coast for 8 weeks during a Nina. Is there any precedent for this?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I’ve heard there is no cold air in the arctic this year anyways, due to lack of sea ice. So even if there is an SSW it won’t get cold anywhere. We are screwed.

.......this is sarcasm.

Pretty doubtful we see ridge locked in over the west coast for 8 weeks during a Nina. Is there any precedent for this?

It's 2020, so any amount of suckage is easily possible. Thankfully, there are not 8 weeks of 2020 left. So that puts an upper limit on things.

[AbbyJr]

I’ve heard there is no cold air in the arctic this year anyways, due to lack of sea ice. So even if there is an SSW it won’t get cold anywhere. We are screwed.

.......this is sarcasm.

Pretty doubtful we see ridge locked in over the west coast for 8 weeks during a Nina. Is there any precedent for this?

Agreed. If nothing else, the jet will get going again and we will see another round of rain and or windstorms.

[Typeing3]

Very much acting like a strong +ENSO.

That block and GOA trough looks semi-permanent and seems like a feature that can linger around for 6-8 weeks. I could even see the block on the west coast strengthening if we see SSW by mid Dec.

Sounds like we should get ready for fog. A whole lot of it.

[Typeing3]

Pretty doubtful we see ridge locked in over the west coast for 8 weeks during a Nina. Is there any precedent for this?

January 1985. Ridge locked over the west coast for basically the entire month. Interestingly enough...we had snow on the ground for much of Jan since the latter half of December '84 was fairly cool and snowy.

[AbbyJr]

Sounds like we should get ready for fog. A whole lot of it.

At least fog is something interesting. But it does make for some challenging driving conditions.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

January 1985. Ridge locked over the west coast for basically the entire month. Interestingly enough...we had snow on the ground for much of Jan since the latter half of December '84 was fairly cool and snowy.

Snow on the ground for most of a month? I could live with that!

[wetcoast91]

I’ve heard there is no cold air in the arctic this year anyways, due to lack of sea ice. So even if there is an SSW it won’t get cold anywhere. We are screwed.

.......this is sarcasm.

Pretty doubtful we see ridge locked in over the west coast for 8 weeks during a Nina. Is there any precedent for this?

1999-2000 comes closest. That winter was forecasted to be a cold/snowy one as it was a "double dip" -ENSO. Winter looked to finally arrived by early-mid Jan with 2 weeks of colder than normal temps with some snow and then it was over. No arctic outrbreaks, no major snowfalls. I believe Feb and March were above normal temp wise which was very odd.

One of my favorite cases to review. Gets technical if you wish to review. To sum it up, -ENSO acted like a strong +ENSO due to a combination of walker cell upwelling and warm water displacement in the w pacific.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 08JD011185

Despite the fact that the La Niña–related cooling in the central equatorial Pacific was stronger than normal during the 1998–2000 La Niña, the atmospheric circulation structure (with an elongated ridge) over the Pacific–North American sector was markedly different from the canonical La Niña pattern. A vertical cross section along the equatorial belt showed that the Walker circulation was considerably stronger during L2 than L7 and shifted westward with the ascending branch of the cell located west of Australia, with an increase in precipitation in the tropical western Pacific. Atmospheric ridging at 500 hPa over the North Pacific with its accompanying atmospheric blocking signature during previous strong La Niñas was replaced with a broad area of significantly negative height anomalies and zonally elongated positive height anomalies just to its south

Not saying this will follow suite nor saying winter is over as I believe we are going to see a backloaded cold JFM period. However the current atmospheric conditions are definitely mimicking what we saw in the 1999/2000 JFM period.

[Weather101]

Very much acting like a strong +ENSO.

That block and GOA trough looks semi-permanent and seems like a feature that can linger around for 6-8 weeks. I could even see the block on the west coast strengthening if we see SSW by mid Dec.

8 weeks would be game over pretty much. I don't really care for mid to late Feb snow. Especially for sea level areas.

[stuffradio]

8 weeks would be game over pretty much. I don't really care for mid to late Feb snow. Especially for sea level areas.

I don't mind Jan or Feb snow. I almost agree though that by late Feb I usually wish for the arrival of nicer more mild temps, especially now that I have kids I will want to be able to go outside and play in warmer temps. I can't wait to see my first child in the snow though!

[PortKells]

I'm definitely getting some 2017/18 vibes now. Still far too early to call this winter anything yet. Late December is still so far away.

[stuffradio]

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