November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Do you think the model is way overdoing the precipitation totals?

Perhaps terrain issues. It looks like the heaviest rain will be relatively short lived. Perhaps 12hrs, give or take. I’d probably go with 40-60mm for Abbotsford

[Weather101]

October 2003 redux on Tuesday? RGEM for Abbotsford:

Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 10.23.54 PM.png

Not a chance

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles look chilly starting later this week continuing through mid month. Good for building the mountain snowpack.

[Monty]

Euro looked Nito approved after day 7. A hot mess. It could be its cutoff bias or it could be right.

[Weather101]

Colder then expected tonight down to 1.8c

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Colder then expected tonight down to 1.8c

Frosty here this morning, but the automated weather station on the American Sumas Mountain (completely different peak from the one by the same name on the Canadian side of the border, elevation about 1000 m), is reporting 10°C. Should be another mild afternoon once the inversion dissipates.

[stuffradio]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1323290824445231104

[Typeing3]

^Will need to see what it peaks at on the NDJ trimonthlies, since ENSO values are calculated over three month periods.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1323290824445231104

I know that super-strong El Niño winters tend to have different outcomes than normal-strength ones (mild and wet versus generally mild and usually dry). Do super-strong La Niña winters also tend to have different outcomes from normal-strength ones?

Hmmm… https://snowbrains.com/la-nina-snow-winters/ would seem to indicate strong ones are snowier, even at lower elevations (map resolution isn’t the greatest but you can see blue shading going down to the Salish Sea coast in the strong La Niña map).

Maybe Catnip’s tagline will prove itself true?

[Antares]

I know that super-strong El Niño winters tend to have different outcomes than normal-strength ones (mild and wet versus generally mild and usually dry). Do super-strong La Niña winters also tend to have different outcomes from normal-strength ones?

Hmmm… https://snowbrains.com/la-nina-snow-winters/ would seem to indicate strong ones are snowier, even at lower elevations (map resolution isn’t the greatest but you can see blue shading going down to the Salish Sea coast in the strong La Niña map).

Maybe Catnip’s tagline will prove itself true?

It either will or it will be a major bust. Every winter is hyped but man, the hype with this one is through the sky.

[Typeing3]

It either will or it will be a major bust. Every winter is hyped but man, the hype with this one is through the sky.

You still gunning for that January 1950 repeat this winter?

[Antares]

You still gunning for that January 1950 repeat this winter?

Maybe a December 1996 would be more realistic?

[Typeing3]

Maybe a December 1996 would be more realistic?

Time will tell. Even that's a pretty tall order.

Mean temp of 1.4c and 80.7cm of snow at YVR in Dec '96.

[AbbyJr]

Maybe a December 1996 would be more realistic?

If we are talking about either January 1950 or December 1996, I don't think there is anyone here that would suggest a bad winter regardless as to which one verifies.

[PortKells]

A bit early to put much stock in it but the GFS has been bullish with a SW surge of wind late Wednesday. If those winds at 925mb mix down to the surface, we could see gusts 80kmh+ The numbers below are YYJ

F4226E69-4540-4377-8904-A7E5BCB836A8.jpeg

Unpopular opinion here but windstorms can suck one. Hope that doesn't happen.