October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

I don’t really like the way the models are cutting off the energy west of the south coast later next week. Sort of a closed low sliding south offshore. That is not a good conduit to cold for us. GFS is still trying to get there but if that low cuts off we are almost certainly going to see our cold air source get cut off too

The models look pretty meh this morning.

[Antares]

The models look pretty meh this morning.

It's over!

[VanCitySouth]

Well, I’m an American interloper here, but Weather101 already gave up that pretense last year. Besides, snide and smug Canadians are more fun.

fair enough

[Monty]

The models look pretty meh this morning.

Big ridge still setting up to our west. The energy cutting off is the problem IMO. We will see what the ensembles say but the odds of it getting cold probably remain about the same. Longe range GFS goes bonkers with the blocking across the arctic in the longe range.

[Monty]

Nino 3.4 down to -1.62. La Niña is really getting its act together.

[AbbyJr]

Big ridge still setting up to our west. The energy cutting off is the problem IMO. We will see what the ensembles say but the odds of it getting cold probably remain about the same. Longe range GFS goes bonkers with the blocking across the arctic in the longe range.

I still don't think we need it getting cold yet. Let's be patient and save the goods for December and January.

[wetcoast91]

Big ridge still setting up to our west. The energy cutting off is the problem IMO. We will see what the ensembles say but the odds of it getting cold probably remain about the same. Longe range GFS goes bonkers with the blocking across the arctic in the longe range.

Too active in the tropics. You keep getting impulses of energy phasing into the jet preventing a fully amplified ridge.

The models may not show it yet but I sense we could see an AR/windstorm pattern in 8-14 days, especially when that ridge pivots or gets undercut.

[stuffradio]

Unfortunately, the Philippines are looking to be getting slammed with a huge Typhoon. I was there a couple of years ago and a lot of people live in poor conditions as it is.

[stuffradio]

This is pretty cool. I just found this.

Screenshot_2020-10-31 Wetterzentrale de - Diagrams.png

[Coquitlam79]

Unfortunately, the Philippines are looking to be getting slammed with a huge Typhoon. I was there a couple of years ago and a lot of people live in poor conditions as it is.

Category 5 super typhoon. The strongest storm of the year anywhere on earth! It's projected to give Manila a direct hit.Worst case scenario for a country that just can't catch a break. I was there in 2013 during typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) and it was crazy to say the least. One thing is the Filipino people are used to typhoons and they are used to disasters. Very resilient.

202022W.png

[AbbyJr]

Too active in the tropics. You keep getting impulses of energy phasing into the jet preventing a fully amplified ridge.

The models may not show it yet but I sense we could see an AR/windstorm pattern in 8-14 days, especially when that ridge pivots or gets undercut.

That would set up nicely for December.

[Monty]

I still don't think we need it getting cold yet. Let's be patient and save the goods for December and January.

If only it worked that way and we were able to save the cold for when we wanted it.

[AbbyJr]

If only it worked that way and we were able to save the cold for when we wanted it.

But would we? I feel like if we had that kind of control it would be tempting to be impatient.

[Weather101]

Well, I’m an American interloper here, but Weather101 already gave up that pretense last year. Besides, snide and smug Canadians are more fun.

lmao yeah I kinda already ruined that one.

[Weather101]

I'm going to guess we will see a chilly pattern coming up but nothing to crazy.