October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

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Looks like the biggest shot of cool air on the 18z ensembles comes on day 9-10 with surface temps running 8-10c below normal across the south coast. YVR would probably see a 3c/-6c type day if it's clear. Flurries a definite possibility if a weak system slides down the coast.

[Typeing3]

Long range 18z ensembles are decent. No arctic blast but solidly chilly with 850mb temps dipping to -5/-6c around Nov 8th and 9th.

[Typeing3]

Snow for the north shore mountains by next Thursday/Friday.

[Typeing3]

Of course the island got buried in a blizzard as the outflow kicked up in late November. 2 feet of snow and temps between -6 and -12C. I believe that is the snowiest November in history at Shawnigan Lake. I remember my dad telling me stories of the near 60cm that fell overnight as the temps dropped. Someone he knew almost lost his float plane and dock under the weight of the snow.

Must've been the evening of the 25th into the 26th. Looking through the shawnigan lake records on environment canada I see they picked up 14.4cm on the 25th followed by 45.0cm on the 26th. Those totals are actually comparable to the blizzard of '96 for you guys.

[Michael1]

Must've been the evening of the 25th into the 26th. Looking through the shawnigan lake records on environment canada I see they picked up 14.4cm on the 25th followed by 45.0cm on the 26th. Those totals are actually comparable to the blizzard of '96 for you guys.

Correct, Sir! It was a Monday, when we got a substantial snowfall. The next day started out sunny, but by 10:30 am the snow started again. By 4:30pm it was so windy and snowing so heavily, that all the street lights were "greyed" out. 55cm fell in Cadboro bay on top of the 25 cm the day before. I haven't seen it snow like that again- even 1996, with a higher total, lacked the intensity.

[smartlikefox]

Oh you guys and your complaints on missing out on certain storms.. grew up in Ucluelet so 1996 never happened. Was clear and cold for the first couple of days. A couple of hours of snow on the 29th that never amounted to anything and then 1 degree and rain after that. Talk about depressing.

[Forrest Gump]

Oh you guys and your complaints on missing out on certain storms.. grew up in Ucluelet so 1996 never happened. Was clear and cold for the first couple of days. A couple of hours of snow on the 29th that never amounted to anything and then 1 degree and rain after that. Talk about depressing.

So you became smart like fox and moved to Nanaimo after that?

[Typeing3]

Oh you guys and your complaints on missing out on certain storms.. grew up in Ucluelet so 1996 never happened. Was clear and cold for the first couple of days. A couple of hours of snow on the 29th that never amounted to anything and then 1 degree and rain after that. Talk about depressing.

It's extremely rare.... but even Tofino and Ucluelet have been winners in the snow department while we've missed out.

January 16th 1969: 9cm in Vancouver and 31cm in Tofino!

[wetcoast91]

Lots of model noise. You see the general idea of a block establishing itself and a splitting jet. Lots of uncertainty with the pattern evolution. My thinking is a broad high lattitude block over the west coast with brief dry shots of cool air. Main action out into the Praries and Great Lakes until late Nov.

[AbbyJr]

Lots of model noise. You see the general idea of a block establishing itself and a splitting jet. Lots of uncertainty with the pattern evolution. My thinking is a broad high lattitude block over the west coast with brief dry shots of cool air. Main action out into the Praries and Great Lakes until late Nov.

My thinking as well and it wouldn't bother me. I'd rather save the goods for December anyways.

[Typeing3]

Lots of model noise. You see the general idea of a block establishing itself and a splitting jet. Lots of uncertainty with the pattern evolution. My thinking is a broad high lattitude block over the west coast with brief dry shots of cool air. Main action out into the Praries and Great Lakes until late Nov.

Any predictions for the winter months? Dec/Jan/Feb.

I'm thinking YVR picks up at least 50cm over the next few months.

[Catnip]

Lots of model noise. You see the general idea of a block establishing itself and a splitting jet. Lots of uncertainty with the pattern evolution. My thinking is a broad high lattitude block over the west coast with brief dry shots of cool air. Main action out into the Praries and Great Lakes until late Nov.

Think Cold and Snow

C’MON

[SouthSardiswx]

So you became smart like fox and moved to Nanaimo after that?

dumb like a Hawk was taken, did John runaway with Hawk?

[SouthSardiswx]

Lots of model noise. You see the general idea of a block establishing itself and a splitting jet. Lots of uncertainty with the pattern evolution. My thinking is a broad high lattitude block over the west coast with brief dry shots of cool air. Main action out into the Praries and Great Lakes until late Nov.

Well my ex wife use to make a lot of noise but it wasn't weather related.

[Catnip]

dumb like a Hawk was taken, did John runaway with Hawk?

Hawk where are you Buttee??