October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 31429?s=19

A 25% chance of October snow is nothing to sneeze at. We shall see.

[Weather101]

I wish I didn't need to be reminded again how much covid tests SUCK.

But it is sunny

[AbbyJr]

Canadian Ensembles look very wet beginning next week.

cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_qpf-3368000.png

[Weather101]

Canadian Ensembles look very wet beginning next week.

cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_qpf-3368000.png

[AbbyJr]

We just need a find a way to drop those SST's in time for December. A dry November would be brutal for us going into the winter months.

[Weather101]

We just need a find a way to drop those SST's in time for December. A dry November would be brutal for us going into the winter months.

I agree but it's not unusual in nina years to see a ridge set up in November.

[AbbyJr]

I agree but it's not unusual in nina years to see a ridge set up in November.

Novembers are historically wet in Nina years though so even if a ridge sets up, its usually short lived. I put all of the Nina years since 1950 up to 2011 into the 20th century reanalysis and here's the result:

500mbninanovember.png

As you can see, the overall pattern is not ridgy.

[Weather101]

Novembers are historically wet in Nina years though so even if a ridge sets up, its usually short lived. I put all of the Nina years since 1950 up to 2011 into the 20th century reanalysis and here's the result:

500mbninanovember.png

As you can see, the overall pattern is not ridgy.

Winter 2020-21: A warm start, then a cold finish?
A hallmark of many La Niñas in the Northwest is a warm November—and we think this coming November will follow suit. During La Niña years, a ridge of high pressure often sets up near the West Coast in November, leading to occasional balmy conditions in Puget Sound.

To wit, Seattle’s warmest November on record occurred four years ago during a La Niña episode, with an average temperature of 50.9 degrees. November 2016, which was punctuated by a record-breaking 70-degree reading on Election Day, was then followed by the city’s coldest December since 2009, and coldest January since 1985. Interestingly enough, Seattle’s third and fourth-warmest Novembers—1949 and 2008—also occurred during La Niña years, and were also followed by very cold (and very snowy winters).

In many La Niña years, this ridge of high pressure—which blocks storms from moving in west-to-east fashion—tends to move further west over the Pacific Ocean as the calendar flips to December/January. As shown in the illustration from NOAA above, this forces storms to travel further north into Alaska to navigate around this so-called “blocking” ridge of high pressure.

Once these storms have completed their journey up and over the top of the ridge, they often barrel southeastward down the backside—toward the Pacific Northwest, picking up colder Canadian air and Pacific moisture along the way. And boom, therein lies the recipe for Seattle snow.

Ultimately, we anticipate this textbook La Niña pattern to prevail across the region during the core winter months of December, January and February, leading to largely cool, wet—and at times, snowy—conditions.

[PortKells]

Canadian Ensembles look very wet beginning next week.

cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_qpf-3368000.png

Thats great. I'm definitely conflicted because my farm turns into a complete Mudfest but in a la nina year with potential like this ill take it.

[Hound]

Just enjoyed a brief hail storm. Lots of great cloud formations out there right now.

[Pomoman]

It is beautiful out there today. Love seeing the interesting cold looking skies.

Not sure if this is a quality website or not but I am getting snowflakes in my Friday morning Forecast

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/

[Radar]

It looks like YXX dropped to 0.1C this morning. They may have even dropped below freezing in between hours. It only got down to 1.6C at my place... a bit too much low cloud hanging around.

A bit of ice this morning on the window. Some frost around salmon river in Langley.

[Hughc0rne]

Winds have shifted at CYXX

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It is beautiful out there today. Love seeing the interesting cold looking skies.

Not sure if this is a quality website or not but I am getting snowflakes in my Friday morning Forecast

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/

You do actually have a fairly good shot at seeing some flakes at that elevation.

[wetcoast91]

Skeptical about snow chances tomorrow below 600m. Models really show nothing that presents any threat below. No cold air in the Canyon and upper air obvs marginal.

Just happy about the dry trend next week.