October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Clear and 4ËšC here.

[wetcoast91]

[AbbyJr]

[Typeing3]

10C at the surface. Looks fairly cloudy too.

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gfs_cfractot_nwus_35.png

[AbbyJr]

In 1990 the initial arctic front didn't do much in terms of snow (2-4cm) for the mainland. We did see some wicked NE winds and an intense temp drop but I do know the island and Seattle got hit hard on the 18th and 19th.

I'd be curious to know how many power outages there were in the Fraser Valley. Not sure why but I find NE winds don't do nearly as much damage to the power grid as the SW ones we get from deep lows crossing the island. I remember the outflow induced wind event back in February 2019. Very few power outages were reported in the Fraser Valley despite winds gusting around 90 km/h for most of the day. Yet, I've seen storms with SW winds of the same speed cause widespread blackouts across the region.

Do you have any thoughts on why this is the case?

[Monty]

00z GFS and NAM kill off dynamic cooling ahead of the front. 3000ft snow levels.

It’s over. We needed that thing to spin up a bit to see some cold air wrap into the North side of the low. Not happening! Still gonna be frosty tomatoes this weekend

[Typeing3]

I'd be curious to know how many power outages there were in the Fraser Valley. Not sure why but I find NE winds don't do nearly as much damage to the power grid as the SW ones we get from deep lows crossing the island. I remember the outflow induced wind event back in February 2019. Very few power outages were reported in the Fraser Valley despite winds gusting around 90 km/h for most of the day. Yet, I've seen storms with SW winds of the same speed cause widespread blackouts across the region.

Do you have any thoughts on why this is the case?

Many of our SW windstorms occur when many trees still have foliage (October and November) which is a major factor in their ability to withstand strong winds.

NE winds can cause major damage as well with the right conditions (when accompanied by an ice storm).

[wetcoast91]

It’s over. We needed that thing to spin up a bit to see some cold air wrap into the North side of the low. Not happening! Still gonna be frosty tomatoes this weekend

Onto winter 2021/22

[Storm]

Nice!

[Typeing3]

Looking likely YVR finally sees back-to-back October freezes for the first time since 2002 and 2003.

[Monty]

Down to 2.9C. Fairly chilly. Had to light a fire

[Typeing3]

Down to 2.9C. Fairly chilly. Had to light a fire

A comparatively toasty 7.1c here. Looks pretty cloudy out there

[AbbyJr]

Many of our SW windstorms occur when many trees still have foliage (October and November) which is a major factor in their ability to withstand strong winds.

NE winds can cause major damage as well with the right conditions (when accompanied by an ice storm).

Good point. For example, in February the trees don't have any foliage so even a SW storm would do much less damage.

I'd also add that the rapid wind direction shift that occurs during wind events from lows crossing the island, is a big factor to wind damage. Outflow winds don't usually have that factor if I understand correctly.

That said, the foliage on the trees is probably one of the biggest factors. I recall that the December 2008 outflow windstorm caused widespread power outages. But there was probably more foliage on the trees at the time though less than perhaps October or November.

[Weather101]

Mild/wet is the dominant pattern by far in the winter, followed by cold/dry. Cold/wet is a tough combo to get.

And yes, the biggest dumps of snow seem to happen as an arctic blast is winding down, meaning the snow doesn't last very long.

This is why it's so hard to get snow around here, Cold and wet is such a tough combo to get and even then things can go wrong and be a half degree to warm.

[Typeing3]

6.8c and raining here.

Looks like the mainland will have to wait till Saturday morning for the first frost of the season.