October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

Was last winter blocky. Maybe it was early on? I remember a PV on steroids and mostly a lot of zonal flow across NA.

Got more zonal after Jan. Was a mild and damp hell with a rex block early on.

[AbbyJr]

I'm feeling theres like a 60% chance of a better than recent average winter. Maybe 10% chance of complete epicness. Thats probably higher than most years.
I'm hoping we get consistently active weather here soon to break down those SSTs heading into winter, we do not need to have things bust because it was a degree too warm coming in off the north pacific. That Sh*t just sucks.

Reasonable assessment. Here are the YXX stats for November and December 1990, as well as January 1991:

November 1990:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1990

December 1990:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1990

January 1991:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1991

Pretty epic winter overall. Very wet in November, arctic cold in December with 3 intense outflow induced windstorms, and followed by heavy snow. Then January featured another less intense arctic blast but it was super snowy.

I wouldn't bet on a redux this upcoming winter. I feel like those standards are pretty high and therefore, its better to have lower expectations than suffer major disappointment. That said, it is very possible we see a colder and snowier winter than average.

I have a feeling this upcoming winter will follow a similar pattern but be less intense. That is, stormy and wet in November with cold and snow in December and January. I could easily be wrong though but I hope not.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

If I see so much as wet flurries here near sea level, I will be pleasantly surprised. Already planning a trip into the hills to see the white stuff.

[Typeing3]

Hopefully we see a repeat of this pattern in the coming months, except followed by a northerly arctic blast rather than being brushed by chilly air sliding to the east.
https://twitter.com/meteo_matt/status/1 ... 6879548418

[PortKells]

Reasonable assessment. Here are the YXX stats for November and December 1990, as well as January 1991:

November 1990:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1990

December 1990:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1990

January 1991:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1991

Pretty epic winter overall. Very wet in November, arctic cold in December with 3 intense outflow induced windstorms, and followed by heavy snow. Then January featured another less intense arctic blast but it was super snowy.

I wouldn't bet on a redux this upcoming winter. I feel like those standards are pretty high and therefore, its better to have lower expectations than suffer major disappointment. That said, it is very possible we see a colder and snowier winter than average.

I have a feeling this upcoming winter will follow a similar pattern but be less intense. That is, stormy and wet in November with cold and snow in December and January. I could easily be wrong though but I hope not.

Obviously a stormy November on that level would be ideal for setting up a strong winter. It just doesn't seem realistic given the constant bounces to ridging we keep seeing. Thinking back to our last truly solid winter (16/17), we had a constant storm train running us over almost from Oct 1st onwards. That lack of active storm track has me thinking that something epic is likely not going to happen, although of course its never impossible.

When you consider recent years, we've had a number of dry cold snaps like that February 2019 week of cold, which thankfully was followed by a big dump in some areas. February 2018 wasn't that much different, nor was December 2017. Its been either too dry or the arctic air was too shallow to really serve up the goods we all desperately desire.

[Typeing3]

I expect the storm train will ramp up soon. Its now nearly November and we're in a moderate Nina.

FWIW...Arctic blasts in the PNW are generally preceded by long, persistently wet stretches so perhaps we'll see something in the latter half of December.

[Typeing3]

Reasonable assessment. Here are the YXX stats for November and December 1990, as well as January 1991:

November 1990:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1990

December 1990:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1990

January 1991:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1991

Pretty epic winter overall. Very wet in November, arctic cold in December with 3 intense outflow induced windstorms, and followed by heavy snow. Then January featured another less intense arctic blast but it was super snowy.

I wouldn't bet on a redux this upcoming winter. I feel like those standards are pretty high and therefore, its better to have lower expectations than suffer major disappointment. That said, it is very possible we see a colder and snowier winter than average.

I have a feeling this upcoming winter will follow a similar pattern but be less intense. That is, stormy and wet in November with cold and snow in December and January. I could easily be wrong though but I hope not.

December 1990 featured two top tier arctic blasts in the span of three weeks with two highs below -7C at YVR and finally capped off by a widespread 30-50cm snowfall across the lower mainland. We haven't seen an event of that magnitude ever since (with perhaps the exception of 1996).

[Weather101]

A lot of dry arctic blasts tend to happen anyways. We don't usually see much snow going into a blast.

[AbbyJr]

I expect the storm train will ramp up soon. Its now nearly November and we're in a moderate Nina.

FWIW...Arctic blasts in the PNW are generally preceded by long, persistently wet stretches so perhaps we'll see something in the latter half of December.

My guess is that we see a dramatic switch to a stormy pattern in November. I have a feeling this winter will be good but of course matching 1990/91 would be almost if not wishful thinking.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

When you consider recent years, we've had a number of dry cold snaps like that February 2019 week of cold, which thankfully was followed by a big dump in some areas. February 2018 wasn't that much different, nor was December 2017. Its been either too dry or the arctic air was too shallow to really serve up the goods we all desperately desire.

Feb 2019 was a case of “so close, yet so far” for this region. I was living in the Seattle area then and it was positively epic down that way. It was just too solidly on the cold/dry side of things up here to get the exciting weather.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

A lot of dry arctic blasts tend to happen anyways. We don't usually see much snow going into a blast.

Mild/wet is the dominant pattern by far in the winter, followed by cold/dry. Cold/wet is a tough combo to get.

And yes, the biggest dumps of snow seem to happen as an arctic blast is winding down, meaning the snow doesn't last very long.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

December 1990 featured two top tier arctic blasts in the span of three weeks with two highs below -7C at YVR and finally capped off by a widespread 30-50cm snowfall across the lower mainland. We haven't seen an event of that magnitude ever since (with perhaps the exception of 1996).

Ah, 1990. I was relatively new in Seattle and thought I had left Rocky Mountain-style dumps of snow behind. Then a convergence zone aligns with an arctic front and it dumps a quick 35 cm in an afternoon. Did I mention I had to leave town on a flight the following morning?

In 1996, the snow was nearly 60 cm deep at my north Seattle house before it started melting… and that was small potatoes compared to what Victoria and Bellingham got!

[Typeing3]

Ah, 1990. I was relatively new in Seattle and thought I had left Rocky Mountain-style dumps of snow behind. Then a convergence zone aligns with an arctic front and it dumps a quick 35 cm in an afternoon. Did I mention I had to leave town on a flight the following morning?

In 1996, the snow was nearly 60 cm deep at my north Seattle house before it started melting… and that was small potatoes compared to what Victoria and Bellingham got!

In 1990 the initial arctic front didn't do much in terms of snow (2-4cm) for the mainland. We did see some wicked NE winds and an intense temp drop but I do know the island and Seattle got hit hard on the 18th and 19th.

[Typeing3]

Chilly evening. Sitting at 7.3C currently here in east coquitlam.

[wetcoast91]

00z GFS and NAM kill off dynamic cooling ahead of the front. 3000ft snow levels.