October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

Nice warm south windstorm as 985mb low crosses central Vancouver Island. You’re evil. The GEPS tends to be a fairly reliable tool.

I see “snow wizard” down south is already comparing this to October 1949, which would mean lows in the -5 to -6 range. Absolutely nothing in the models to support that at this time.

October 1949? Lame event in my books.

I have October 1732 vibes from this historic event. Top tier blast with temps going near -8C and 35cm of snow. I recall I was a middle aged brown bear in that lifetime and had to shovel my way through snow to reach the cold icy river for food.

October from 12,000 years ago was way worse. 1000m of ice and snow made travelling impassible.

Anything less than these two events will put me into a Sh*tty mood.

18Z. THINK COLD, SNOW AND DEATH!!!!CMONNN!!!!

[Typeing3]

October 1949? Lame event in my books.

I have October 1732 vibes from this historic event. Top tier blast with temps going near -8C and 35cm of snow. I recall I was a middle aged brown bear in that lifetime and had to shovel my way through snow to reach the cold icy river for food.

October from 12,000 years ago was way worse. 1000m of ice and snow made travelling impassible.

Anything less than these two events will put me into a Sh*tty mood.

18Z. THINK COLD, SNOW AND DEATH!!!!CMONNN!!!!

You should make an account on the american forum site and post this.

[Monty]

It doesn't look that warm. Temps would probably hover just under 10c which is seasonably cool for a high at this time of year.

Seems like Snow wizard compares every October to 1949. Can't take that guy seriously at all.

850s bottom out at between -1 and -2 on the GEPS, so still cool but warmer than the other models. Also many more members showing a wet solution later in the week

[Storm]

You should make an account on the american forum site and post this.

I need a permission from Nito to post this at AF.

[wetcoast91]

I need a permission from Nito to post this at AF.

Do it!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Let's do it!!! This would cause a routine forum collapse on AF, of the sort that happens several times per winter. CMON!!!

FTFY.

[Storm]

Do it!

Will do it in a bit.

[PortKells]

850s bottom out at between -1 and -2 on the GEPS, so still cool but warmer than the other models. Also many more members showing a wet solution later in the week

Good for mountain snow at least?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Will do it in a bit.

No big hurry, but do post a heads-up here when you do.

[Typeing3]

18z GFS.

Day 5

gfs_T850_nwus_21.png

Day 5.5

gfs_T850_nwus_23.png

Day 6

gfs_T850_nwus_25.png

Chilly!

[Hound]

Will do it in a bit.

Let us know what kind of responses you get. lol

[Typeing3]

18z GFS shows highs of only around 6/7C on both Friday and Saturday.

Friday looks mostly cloudy with a few showers and some stray flurries at higher elevations before it clears up overnight with temps dipping to around -1C Saturday morning.

[Typeing3]

Chilly gusty outflow winds Friday evening and overnight.

[Typeing3]

Looks like 850mb temps bottom out at -6.4C on the operational GFS and -5.8C on the ensembles by Saturday.

[wetcoast91]

We know we have a highly amplified ridge out west. The models are probably overdoing the depth of the trough digging SW towards OR by late next week. I suspect that low will be a wild card but the ingredients are there for 400m-600m snow levels with moisture in play anywhere north of that low.