October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Can we not do an early cold snap? My tomato plant is still producing.

Take one for the team.

[Monty]

As I recall there was 1-2 cm of wet snow, after about 25 mm of cold rain. I was just pointing it out because it felt like a perfect setup for a decent snowfall, but there's no such thing as a perfect setup this early in the season. It was also 8 days later than the event modelled for next week...

I'd call it a win if we just saw snow in the air next weekend. Getting sticking snow below 500 feet would be like winning the lottery.

Yea. Pretty much. I think we had 3-5cm here or something like that. I’d probably rather see any potential cold snap next week take the cold dry route. A hard freeze with some crisp October sunshine is always nice.

Although, that October 1991 snowfall was always a memory from my childhood. I remember walking home at lunch to get a warmer coat cause I hadn’t expected the snow to fall like it did.

[AbbyJr]

Yea. Pretty much. I think we had 3-5cm here or something like that. I’d probably rather see any potential cold snap next week take the cold dry route. A hard freeze with some crisp October sunshine is always nice.

Although, that October 1991 snowfall was always a memory from my childhood. I remember walking home at lunch to get a warmer coat cause I hadn’t expected the snow to fall like it did.

Is there any truth to the theory that early season cold snaps around here often mean winter cancel later in the DJF period?

I've heard it said before but honestly it sounds like more of a coincidence than anything scientific.

[Monty]

Is there any truth to the theory that early season cold snaps around here often mean winter cancel later in the DJF period?

I've heard it said before but honestly it sounds like more of a coincidence than anything scientific.

Yea but that generally applies to El Niño winters.

[AbbyJr]

Yea but that generally applies to El Niño winters.

I would assume its because the setup needed for arctic air and snow here is rare and especially rare in El Nino years. Therefore, if you get one in October or early November then you may not see another one that season. To clarify, its not the early season cold snap that causes the DJF period to lack any notable arctic air, but rather its just that the pattern is uncommon and sometimes we only see it once or twice per year. Its unfortunate that it can be sometimes wasted in the months that don't matter. So its more about how many cold snaps are probable and the timing. During La Nina, there is a higher probability of multiple arctic air events than during El Nino, hence the reason this theory is more applicable to El Nino winters.

[Pomoman]

As I recall there was 1-2 cm of wet snow, after about 25 mm of cold rain. I was just pointing it out because it felt like a perfect setup for a decent snowfall, but there's no such thing as a perfect setup this early in the season. It was also 8 days later than the event modelled for next week...

I'd call it a win if we just saw snow in the air next weekend. Getting sticking snow below 500 feet would be like winning the lottery.

It’s a shame there are no weather stations where I am (as far as I can find). I’m quite curious to see what will happen at my place at 1100ft in a set up like next weekend.

[AbbyJr]

It’s a shame there are no weather stations where I am (as far as I can find). I’m quite curious to see what will happen at my place at 1100ft in a set up like next weekend.

Same with Westwood Plateau. I wish there were more stations on Environment Canada's list with up to date data. Its actually surprising given the microclimates around here.

[Monty]

It’s a shame there are no weather stations where I am (as far as I can find). I’m quite curious to see what will happen at my place at 1100ft in a set up like next weekend.

1100ft on Burnaby mtn. We are all gonna be jealous of you this winter.

[Typeing3]

Is there any truth to the theory that early season cold snaps around here often mean winter cancel later in the DJF period?

I've heard it said before but honestly it sounds like more of a coincidence than anything scientific.

Nope. At least not during la Nina winters.

1956, 1971 and 1984 all had late late October snowfalls and all were pretty great winters.

[Typeing3]

Decent chance we see our first freeze of the season on
Thursday morning.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

gfs_T2m_nwus_20.png

[Monty]

Nope. At least not during la Nina winters.

1956, 1971 and 1984 all had late late October snowfalls and all were pretty great winters.

1955 winter started on Remembrance Day and never looked back. The cold just kept coming

[Bonovox]

Tonight's Euro may be interesting.

[Abby_wx]

I would assume its because the setup needed for arctic air and snow here is rare and especially rare in El Nino years. Therefore, if you get one in October or early November then you may not see another one that season. To clarify, its not the early season cold snap that causes the DJF period to lack any notable arctic air, but rather its just that the pattern is uncommon and sometimes we only see it once or twice per year. Its unfortunate that it can be sometimes wasted in the months that don't matter. So its more about how many cold snaps are probable and the timing. During La Nina, there is a higher probability of multiple arctic air events than during El Nino, hence the reason this theory is more applicable to El Nino winters.

El Nino winters are typically front-loaded. The effects of the El Nino don't usually have a much impact until early January.

[Typeing3]

1955 winter started on Remembrance Day and never looked back. The cold just kept coming

Yeah, bouts of arctic air and snow in every winter month that year.

I was actually referring to '56-57 earlier though as YVR recorded a trace of snow in late October 1956.

[Bonovox]

00z Euro.