October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

First freeze of the season next Sunday?
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:49 am I think there is a decent chance we will see wind warnings issued later today for tomorrow’s system.
Been up for the Sunshine Coast since this morning.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:06 pm Euro shows it as well, but different timeframe. Nice to see nevertheless. :thumbup:

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3216800.png
The pattern progression on the Euro has me feeling pretty good about a decent cold snap during the second half of October. Looks promising but time will tell
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

18z HRDPS bring the low onshore N of Campbell River. A little deeper than previous runs.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:13 pm 18z HRDPS bring the low onshore N of Campbell River. A little deeper than previous runs.
Corresponding wind. Gusts to 40-45 knots (75 km/h-ish) over exposed areas seems like a reasonable call.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:17 pm Corresponding wind. Gusts to 40-45 knots (75 km/h-ish) over exposed areas seems like a reasonable call.
Track that low a bit further south and we will have damaging winds over the Lower Mainland.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:57 pm Track that low a bit further south and we will have damaging winds over the Lower Mainland.
:wish:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Antares wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:35 pm:wish:
Still possible. :thumbup:
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Wind warning just went up. I think EC is trusting the HRDPS on this one, it's the most bullish on intensity and track it seems (in terms of LM wind, that is). We shall see.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

VanCitySouth wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:35 pm Wind warning just went up. I think EC is trusting the HRDPS on this one, it's the most bullish on intensity and track it seems (in terms of LM wind, that is). We shall see.
Most models bring in strong winds, but yes the HRDPS is leading the way in terms of intensity. Its a high resolution model so EC must be trusting it. I'm sure there are other factors they are considering as well though. We will see. Windstorms are difficult to predict around here and are known for busting at the last minute. Time will tell. :thumbup:
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

4km WRF.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Looks like the storm is coming in at the stronger end of model solutions. Maybe inline with the HRDPS Offshore and west coast observations show its pressure down to at least 986mb and possibly still strengthening
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

EkNgWuqWoAEytMG.jpg
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Snowing in Anahim Lake.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Wintergirl »

Wet snow up here in Whistler this morning :thumbup:
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