February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Zone8
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Zone8 »

stuffradio wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:37 am I made a thread for this too, but I might as well post it here also.

https://twitter.com/stuffradio/status/1 ... 9325706246
Thank you :thumbup:
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

12z GFS day 10. Hmmm
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

One last shot on the 26th?
IMG_0433.PNG
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z HRDPS looks good.
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

It’s gon rain!

Too warm out.
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Radar wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:05 am It’s gon rain!

Too warm out.
The latest SREF Plume shows there's a 65% chance of snow, and eventually a 36% chance of rain, but snow still wins out.
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Outflow has increased and cooled in the eastern Fraser valley. I would expect snowfall warnings from EC with the afternoon package. Maybe the mid day update but I doubt it.

Snowing lightly here again
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Catnip wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 8:51 am One last shot on the 26th?

12Z ensemble continues to trend towards a greater chance of arctic air around then
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Willoughby »

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:21 am Outflow has increased and cooled in the eastern Fraser valley. I would expect snowfall warnings from EC with the afternoon package. Maybe the mid day update but I doubt it.

Snowing lightly here again
I was about to post similar thoughts too.
Normally very calm in outflow situations here, the outflow is increasing noticeably too.

And FWIW, I tend to find that the Global futurecast product not the greatest reliability. The resolution is not great at all...
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

As with most of our snowfalls (especially in recent years) this will be another Nowcast IMO.

:think:
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

I think this one will definitely be better for areas North of the Fraser and higher elevations. Too many factors to overcome for coastal and sea level regions. Who knows though.
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Willoughby wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:27 am I was about to post similar thoughts too.
Normally very calm in outflow situations here, the outflow is increasing noticeably too.

And FWIW, I tend to find that the Global futurecast product not the greatest reliability. The resolution is not great at all...
The outflow has increased here which is very rare for my area.
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Closer look at the 12Z 3km NAM.
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Willoughby »

Storm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:41 am The outflow has increased here which is very rare for my area.
This will definitely help the #teamsnow chances for tomorrow. I agree with the 2-3” range being suggested, and the SREF plumes are decreasing the rain probability too.
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Re: February 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

CB9FCEE7-3DB9-4E30-AA8D-F54626CE1BB0.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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