July 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[John]

The mosquitos are ruthless over here. Tons of places for them to breed here on the farm.

Haven’t really noticed yet but I am sure once it warms up there will be lots!

[SouthSardiswx]

enjoy

Thanks John, Sunday was nice for a walk on the rotary trail in Chilliwack river was running fast.

[Michael1]

While we wait for summer, let's talk about:

20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png

[Typeing3]

While we wait for summer, let's talk about:
20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png

Hopefully that mean continues to dip as we move closer to winter. We haven't had a moderate/strong Nina in nearly a decade.

Though maybe it's in the sweet spot right now...weak Nina/low solar combo does seem to produce the best winters for our region.

[Glacier]

A bit wet here in the Okanagan... we rode the KVR from Myra Canyon (near Kelowna) to Penticton and encountered 19 lakes like this on the trail...

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We did find some nice views though!

106016847_10158085183246628_482030674943211848_n.jpg

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[SouthSardiswx]

Awesome snaps there iceburg man, some strange summer so far high water levels for July including the Vedder I noticed is higher than at any point earlier this spring. This chilly weather is good for Ms. Creeker to watch Christmas in July on the W network.

[Glacier]

Awesome snaps there iceburg man, some strange summer so far high water levels for July including the Vedder I noticed is higher than at any point earlier this spring. This chilly weather is good for Ms. Creeker to watch Christmas in July on the W network.

Here is a graph showing the peak flow rates of the Fraser River at Hope. 10th highest in the past 100 years...

FRASER2020FLOWS6.png

[Forrest Gump]

While we wait for summer, let's talk about:
20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png

Nice looking leech pattern , it should work well for Monty up at Watch lake.

[BhamMe]

While we wait for summer, let's talk about:
20200707.sstOutlooks_nino34.png

I'm liking this. All that's needed is for the border to open so I can get up to Canada and do some Okanogan skiing in November and December. How fun would it be to be able to ski on opening weekend for once???!!!

[John]

I'm liking this. All that's needed is for the border to open so I can get up to Canada and do some Okanogan skiing in November and December. How fun would it be to be able to ski on opening weekend for once???!!!

But who knows when that will happen? We would love to have you back but when the flu season starts they will put us all back in an lockdown and keep borders closed.

By the way who is paying for Trudeau 340+ billion dollar deficit???

[Roberts Creeker]

Awesome snaps there iceburg man, some strange summer so far high water levels for July including the Vedder I noticed is higher than at any point earlier this spring. This chilly weather is good for Ms. Creeker to watch Christmas in July on the W network.

Sardine! How did you know ...I think it was July 3 (might have been 2) I gave up and started a fire in the wood stove and had a cozy night, warm fire and a Christmas movie, should have made popcorn!

[SouthSardiswx]

But who knows when that will happen? We would love to have you back but when the flu season starts they will put us all back in an lockdown and keep borders closed.

By the way who is paying for Trudeau 340+ billion dollar deficit???

those of us still working John.

[Typeing3]

Looks like Sunday could be our last shot at any meaningful rain thru at least late month.

12z GFS shows a classic summer pattern setting up next week...temps in the low to mid 20s with a few dry NW fronts skirting through our area.

[BhamMe]

NOAA US just issued a La Nina Watch.

ENSO is still in neutral, and likely to continue so through the summer. However, the 50-55% chance of La Niña developing in the fall and lasting through winter means NOAA has hoisted a La Niña Watch.

The current forecast, a 50-55% chance of La Niña, is not a very strong probability. There is still about a 40-45% chance that neutral conditions will remain through the fall and winter, and a smaller but non-zero chance of El Niño—around 5-10%.



These probabilities reflect forecasters’ thinking about current conditions in the tropical Pacific and the computer model guidance. For the past few months, many of the dynamical computer models have been pointing to cooler-than-average conditions on the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These models start from observed ocean and atmosphere conditions and apply physical equations to create a picture of potential future conditions. We consider many different models, and run them many times, to generate a range of potential outcomes that is as complete as possible.

Right now, most of these models predict that sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region will be more than 0.5°C cooler than the long-term average—the La Niña threshold—in the fall and winter, although there is still a wide range of potential outcomes.

[Typeing3]

Mentions of '55-56 as a winter analogue on the American forum. That's a fairly high bar to set this early.