June 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Nimbus]

Yes, I think you should read all the posts.

BTW, Ojmjakon is colder than Verhojansk.
The record of -67.8C in Verhojansk is probably unreliable. Since 1947 (actual location of the station), the record is -63.0C in January 1982.

Here are the Ojmjakon normals.


Capture d’écran 2020-06-23 à 20.51.31.jpg

There are a lot of posts to read lol! I was just thinking that the min temp might be in error compared to other locations. Some people have said the same about Snag's record of -62.8 being unreliable.

[VanCitySouth]

Canada Goose- Ok that's good, thanks. I dunno, I feel like I just have rain PTSD from EC's forecast icons, LOL. Like seeing that dumb clouds with rain icon on numerous days just creates visceral reaction as if it is November and not June. And although it looks like a small amount of rain like you said, the POP is 60 percent for Tuesday which my brain associates with a fairly cloudy and rainy day. But if it's 60 percent chance of light rain for about an hour that equals 2mm and then it clears out, that's a whole lot different than 60 percent chance of rain that equals 2 mm spread out all day with drizzle and low clouds. THIS is where just looking at a daily forecast can be depressing.

I don't know if this has been said before, it feels like this year's summer forecasting is the complete opposite of normal.

In normal years (or perhaps the recent past, recency bias) the rain would show up in the models a week out, then evaporate suddenly so that 3 days out it's light rain, 2 days out it's showers, a day out it's just a chance of showers, and on the day it's dry more often than not.

This year, the big warm ridge shows up in the models a week out, then 3 days out it suddenly looks a lot less ridgy, 2 days out it's a chance of showers, a day out it's a full on trough, and the day of is damp and drizzly...

[Weather101]

17c and raining pretty mild out there. Hopefully we can have a dry Canada day at least.

[Weather101]

Not really. They are just prone to extreme temperature changes. I'm sure they will be hot again later this summer.

@canadagoose

Compared to the "average" temperature, yes it is warm. Temperatures 30-35C are normal to see each summer though.

What is not normal, is the number of days that they have had these temperatures. It's usually not so stable. And yes, I know about the record but that is just for Verkhoyansk.

Exactly I’m not sure what point he really is trying to prove. YVR normal temp in the summer doesn’t mean they can’t have a heatwave and have a 30c day, or break a all time high temperature even tho it doesn’t happen often.

[tyweather]

May 2020 was the hottest on record. While things like this have become somewhat commonplace, it’s important not to lose sight of their significance. There’s a 99.9% chance that 2020 will end up in the top 5 warmest years on record (and it has a good shot at being the warmest), meaning that the 7 warmest years on record will have been the last 7 years.

Looks like the super warm anomaly in Russia moved a bit east.

[stuffradio]

For those who use the forum on mobile, are you having good luck staying signed in on your phone now? I noticed that I'm not signing out as much.

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/CanadaGooseBC/statu ... 5850964992

[SouthSardiswx]

What happened to Sardis?

I'm still around hasn't been much to comment on weather wise, wash rinse repeat. Although yes Tuesday was muggy surprised we weren't primed for some TS activity. I start holiday's on July 2nd for 10 day's time to camp. Hope everyone is staying safe it was nice to go out for dinner last week instead of picking up. With all the traffic back now it looks just as it did before the pandemic if you didn't know otherwise.

[Canada Goose]

Exactly I’m not sure what point he really is trying to prove.

Capture d’écran 2020-06-24 à 18.11.42.jpg

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS says only 8 mm rain over the next 384 hours.

[Antares]

12Z GFS says only 8 mm rain over the next 384 hours.

I don't mind the rain, I just want these damn clouds gone (if it doesn't rain).

[Leighbugs]

I don't mind the rain, I just want these damn clouds gone (if it doesn't rain).

YES! Cloudy and 25C feels like a waste to me. I want sunshine. Stubborn clouds outside AGAIN today.

[Antares]

YES! Cloudy and 25C feels like a waste to me. I want sunshine. Stubborn clouds outside AGAIN today.

And today again.

But at least yesterday turned out pretty nice.

[John]

I'm still around hasn't been much to comment on weather wise, wash rinse repeat. Although yes Tuesday was muggy surprised we weren't primed for some TS activity. I start holiday's on July 2nd for 10 day's time to camp. Hope everyone is staying safe it was nice to go out for dinner last week instead of picking up. With all the traffic back now it looks just as it did before the pandemic if you didn't know otherwise.

Thankfully this pandemic stuff is quickly behind us, I guess in hindsight it was better to overreact and be safe.

Good to see you’re still doing good Mr. Sardis.

[Antares]

I'm still around hasn't been much to comment on weather wise, wash rinse repeat. Although yes Tuesday was muggy surprised we weren't primed for some TS activity. I start holiday's on July 2nd for 10 day's time to camp. Hope everyone is staying safe it was nice to go out for dinner last week instead of picking up. With all the traffic back now it looks just as it did before the pandemic if you didn't know otherwise.

Good to see you back as well.

I checked CAPE values on Tuesday and on the North Shore it was relatively healthy at 600 J/kg, and of course a bit higher over the mountains. No thunderstorms though.

Anyway, today started out nice so I drove to Squamish and when I came back here it was completely cloudy.