February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Lisa0527]

Let's put this whole Covid-19 into perspective, sure it's a new virus that we don't know about but here's some facts.
this is courtesy of the AF it's well written. Btw it's 5.1c this morning in South Sardis.

At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than 26 million Americans have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms. BUT let's panic over a few sporadic cases of coronavirus. NOPE! I've heard outside of China the fatality rate is 0.7%. The h1n1 Bird Flu pandemic had a higher mortality rate. I've heard China is releasing 30,000+ people a day from Hospitals who are no longer symptomatic. Far less new cases every day. Additionally, I have spoke to my friend in Northern Italy the "hot zone" area and he told me it has really only affected the elderly similarly to the flu, and although a few public events have been cancelled there is no degree of alarm occurring. My advice: Go out and continue to live your lives. If you feel you need to buy some extra water, supplies, canned food, go for it. No shame in that. Wash your hands often, avoid opening any doors with your hands at the store, bank, wherever by using a coat sleeve, and avoid sick people just as you would during every flu season.

Sorry but I’d have to disagree. The estimated case fatality rate for seasonal flu is 0.01-0.02%. The current estimate for coronavirus is just above 2%...100 X higher than seasonal flu, and it’s spreading faster than the flu. It’s still very early days...if it continues to spread internationally they’re estimating 40 to 60% of the worlds population will be infected. So far it looks like the young and healthy will be fine, but the over 70 crowd will probably suffer. No need to panic, and I don’t think this is zombie apocalypse time, but given the extreme measures being taken by governments around the world, we could be in for a few rough economic months. Your basic prepping advice seems completely reasonable.

[Monty]

Good post. So far around 78,500 people infected in China, 2,800 died, and 33,000 recovered and released. I believe that this virus will become just another seasonal flu and people will get used to it. So don’t blame China. They are doing their best to stop spreading it all over. We should fight the virus, not the people.

I’d bet the numbers in China are much higher than that. Unlikely China is being honest with the rest of the world. I know of someone locally who has family in Wuhan and they claim things are much worse than what the media are reporting

[moonshadow0825]

Sorry but I’d have to disagree. The estimated case fatality rate for seasonal flu is 0.01-0.02%. The current estimate for coronavirus is just above 2%...100 X higher than seasonal flu, and it’s spreading faster than the flu. It’s still very early days...if it continues to spread internationally they’re estimating 40 to 60% of the worlds population will be infected. So far it looks like the young and healthy will be fine, but the over 70 crowd will probably suffer. No need to panic, and I don’t think this is zombie apocalypse time, but given the extreme measures being taken by governments around the world, we could be in for a few rough economic months. Your basic prepping advice seems completely reasonable.

would agree with this. also read an interesting point that the main issue is that flu cases generally need to progress to pneumonia for it to be fatal, hence the .1-.2% mortality.

Covid-19 is essentially a primary pneumonia virus requiring high rates of ICU care and I gather that is the real issue, globally we simply aren't set up to manage that level of care.

Lisa is correct this really does seem to be a 70+ killer virus, what I find concerning is that approximately 25% of the population is vulnerable to this virus (ages 65+) not sure if we have the ability to handle the millions of patients that might need ICU spots.

[Antares]

I’d bet the numbers in China are much higher than that. Unlikely China is being honest with the rest of the world. I know of someone locally who has family in Wuhan and they claim things are much worse than what the media are reporting

Worse in what way? Society breakdown? Or the virus itself and its health effects?

[Antares]

Anywho, tomorrow's weather is looking nice. I'll go for a walk.

[SouthSardiswx]

Anywho, tomorrow's weather is looking nice. I'll go for a walk.

I see they've got some sunshine in the forecast for the central valley for Saturday and Sunday then wet all next week. It was looking wet this weekend a couple day's ago. Rain has started in south Sardis and 8.3c winds are a bit gusty as well. I hit a gust of 50kmh late afternoon my high today was 9.8c

[SouthSardiswx]

Sorry guy's I didn't mean for this to be an off topic on the weather discussion page it can be moved to General page maybe make a thread for health if the mods want to. I just find it fascinating in the year 2020 with all the the advancement we have in health care that we have a possible pandemic on our hands what's further more I've read stories in the past saying the pharmaceutical company's don't want cures for everything these viruses that pop up around the world are big money makers for them.

[Monty]

Worse in what way? Society breakdown? Or the virus itself and its health effects?

More people sick and more deaths than they are reporting.

[Monty]

Some slushy splats in the rain tonight 2C

[VanCitySouth]

Some slushy splats in the rain tonight 2C

GFS seems to think some of us will continue seeing these splats over the next couple weeks. Pretty troughy looking.

[SouthSardiswx]

GFS seems to think some of us will continue seeing these splats over the next couple weeks. Pretty troughy looking.

If that's the case the mountains (ski hills) should continue to do well this month. I miss Jr. Gumps, Hounds and Stormnut, T3, Abby Sr. Ms. (hot) as in weather Ms. Creeker. and other's hope everyone is doing good at least stick your nose in the forum and say hi.Hope your o.k. too Mrs. Leighbugs.

[Storm]

If that's the case the mountains (ski hills) should continue to do well this month. I miss Jr. Gumps, Hounds and Stormnut, T3, Abby Sr. Ms. (hot) as in weather Ms. Creeker. and other's hope everyone is doing good at least stick your nose in the forum and say hi.Hope your o.k. too Mrs. Leighbugs.

Bring on the Summer. I am done with this Sh*t.

[Antares]

Bring on the Summer. I am done with this Sh*t.

Same here.

[John]

Same here.

12z. After day 10 is a thing of beauty

[VanCitySouth]

Drunkle's gone off his trolley today