February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Hail or graupel showers overnight here. Woke me up. Still some left in the roof valleys this morning.

[AbbyJr]

Wonderful to hear glad it's getting used, couldn't have sold it a nicer person.

I couldn't have bought it from a nicer person.

[Antares]

ENSO. Solar. QBO. Is all just weighting of the dice. You’re more likely to “roll” the dice and win a good winter during a La Niña than a strong El Niño but it’s not guaranteed. Let’s say you have a 50% chance of a good roll in a neutral year. It might only be 30% chance in a moderate strong El Niño. And maybe 60% in -ENSO -QBO. 70% in -ENSO +QBO. IMO there is absolutely no setup that guarantees a blockbuster winter.

Tell that to snow wizard.

[Bonovox]

Thought this was interesting. GEM > GFS.


https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/122 ... 02499?s=21

[AbbyJr]

March 1951 or 2002?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-3344800.png

[SouthSardiswx]

March 1951 or 2002?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-3344800.png

I was going to post coming into work l saw some snow geese in a field between Whatcom and 3rd, first time this season now the models are showing something for next weekend or early next week.
I mentioned it before when l see snow geese we get chilly weather about a week later any correlation?

[AbbyJr]

I was going to post coming into work l saw some snow geese in a field between Whatcom and 3rd, first time this season now the models are showing something for next weekend or early next week.
I mentioned it before when l see snow geese we get chilly weather about a week later any correlation?

In all honesty, it would only take minor changes to that modelled pattern for it to be decently cold by March standards.

[SouthSardiswx]

Knucks just made a huge trade! thoughts in the sports thread. Its a chilly evening down near my work at Sumas.
The 00Z GFS looks very interesting.

[Storm]

Knucks just made a huge trade! thoughts in the sports thread. Its a chilly evening down near my work at Sumas.
The 00Z GFS looks very interesting.

I don't think anyone care for eather of two. Bring on the Summer.

[SouthSardiswx]

I don't think anyone care for eather of two. Bring on the Summer.

Not much summer weather yet Stormy still wearing me winter parka.

[Forrest Gump]

I don't think anyone care for eather of two. Bring on the Summer.

One outta two ain't bad. Before summer comes playoffs.

[Storm]

One outta two ain't bad. Before summer comes playoffs.

They are not making the playoffs.

[SouthSardiswx]

One outta two ain't bad. Before summer comes playoffs.

00Z GFS looks kinda like the rug pull from afew weeks ago.

[SouthSardiswx]

One outta two ain't bad. Before summer comes playoffs.

Playoffs but no summer this year that wouldn't surprise me last year was not a stellar summer any heatwaves only lasted afew days l recall.

[SouthSardiswx]

Look at the end of the run. Looks like winter in March!