February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

So Phil on the AF canceled next winter?! Cliff Mass' latest blog outlined how we are possibly heading towards neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific. If that verifies that is the antithesis of "cancel winter."

Wasn't this winter neutral?

[Coquitlam79]

Feb 2008 had a good snowfall too. Dec 2007 had the epic storm of early December. Snow than heavy rain, massive flooding in Wa State.
For now it looks like the usual 2 week drier than normal stretch that occurs in most years either in late Feb or early March is going to happen again this year. I wonder if this March will be as dry as 2018 and 2019. I doubt it.
In 2015 the dry stetch was very pronounced but was followed by a super wet last half of March.

[AbbyJr]

Feb 2008 had a good snowfall too. Dec 2007 had the epic storm of early December. Snow than heavy rain, massive flooding in Wa State.
For now it looks like the usual 2 week drier than normal stretch that occurs in most years either in late Feb or early March is going to happen again this year. I wonder if this March will be as dry as 2018 and 2019. I doubt it.
In 2015 the dry stetch was very pronounced but was followed by a super wet last half of March.

That December 2007 storm was intense. Abbotsford recorded 30.2cm followed by a sudden warm up and 100+ km/h wind gusts.

[Monty]

Some wet snow falling with that shower near Nanaimo

6A11F4F8-AF68-4C94-9536-00C0C3817440.jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

An extended dry stretch would be nice any chance anyone?

Good

[SouthSardiswx]

Wasn't this winter neutral?

Phil kept saying all winter that the atmosphere was acting like a El Nino state.

[SouthSardiswx]

Wasn't this winter neutral?

Or a weak El Nino l thought.

[AbbyJr]

Phil kept saying all winter that the atmosphere was acting like a El Nino state.

If that is the case, then whats the real point of ENSO? I mean, we may go into a La Nina and yet the atmosphere acts as if it were an El Nino.

In the same way, we could go into an El Nino and be stuck in a La Nina pattern all winter.

So does ENSO really affect our weather patterns as much as previously thought?

My assumption is that there are many other factors besides ENSO. Therefore, a La Nina does not guarantee a cold and snowy winter for us nor does an El Nino cancel our winter. In fact, the winter of 1968/1969 was a strong El Nino with high solar. Phil has said the reason for such a cold and snowy winter was due to the NAO dropping to record negative levels. But what caused the NAO to go so strongly negative? And even at that, there must have been a strong -PNA because apart from a -PNA, a -NAO won't deliver arctic cold for us. Yet, El Nino supposedly favours a +PNA, which certainly was not the case in 1968/1969 despite it being an El Nino, and not just any ordinary one, but a strong one. Not to mention, that winter was high solar. Isn't high solar supposed to decrease the chances of high latitude blocking?

The climate is extremely complex despite attempts to dumb it down to one or two factors at the most.

I'm not even convinced the issue is that the atmosphere is acting as if it were an El Nino when in fact its neutral.

My issue is that such an assertion implies that the ENSO guarantees a particular weather pattern, and if the current pattern is not consistent with the current ENSO state, then the atmosphere must be stuck in a different ENSO state.

Such an assertion is silly in my opinion. I mean, consider the theory that low solar leads to more high latitude blocking. We've been under the influence of low solar for the last several years, and yet have suffered from a lack of blocking in the high latitudes.

Let's take 2017/2018 as an example. That winter was La Nina/Low Solar. Yet, apart from a brief backdoor blast and ugly ice storm in the valley and brief snowfall in February, there was hardly any high latitude blocking. There are many examples of winters where we've been in a La Nina and only experienced brief periods of high latitude blocking.

The winter of 2016-2017 certainly featured lots of blocking, but they were mostly just backdoor intrusions. But I suppose that still counts.

Apart from that, we have the winter of 2018/2019, which delivered a prolonged arctic blast in February but that was likely the result of the SSW event, which may or may not have been related to low solar. I'm actually not sure if low solar favours SSW or not. I do know 2018/2019 was a weak El Nino but the atmosphere was supposedly stuck in a La Nina state. Yet as I already said, that winter was a dud apart from the SSW induced arctic blast in February.

Phil maintains that the QBO has a big impact and as Monty has stated, La Nina favours the N Pacific ridge and a +QBO favours amplification of the ridge. But as I've said, its also been stated that low solar favours high latitude blocking yet our current solar minimum has not delivered much in the way of any prolonged high latitude blocking patterns. Certainly nothing compared to what was seen in 1968/1969 during a high solar and a strong El Nino. I'd be interested in knowing what the QBO state was during that winter. I'd also be interested in knowing which winters were La Nina/+QBO/Low Solar and how many delivered major arctic cold to the PNW.

Overall, the climate is complex and I honestly don't think its as easy as saying "La Nina" we are now going to be stuck in the freezer and buried in snow all winter.

Interesting enough, Brett Anderson stated in his winter 2011/2012 forecast that he suspected the West would be in the freezer for much of the winter and experience historically cold temperatures with a persistent GOA block. His predictions were based on the forecasted strong La Nina. However, apart from a brief arctic blast in January, that winter was a dud.

Brett Anderson later reflected on his busted forecast, and if I recall correctly, he stated that a lack of high latitude blocking was the culprit, and was something he had not factored into his forecast.

So can we really predict how a winter will turn out based on the ENSO/Solar state? I don't think so. Its not that simple.

[Roberts Creeker]

Spring

One can hope...unless we get a really big snowfall, I'd go for that.

[Roberts Creeker]

Farmer'a Almanac is giving Southern BC slightly cool and drier for Feb -April then warmer and wetter for May to July but not sure if I'm buying their forecast this year when they had slightly cooler and normal precip for January

Thanks Moonshadow! I've never put much stock in their prediction especially seeing how hard it is to predict the weather 2 days away but it's always an interesting read...and sure enough they do get it right some of the time.

[SouthSardiswx]

Wasn't this winter neutral?

Or like l said a weak El nino.

[SouthSardiswx]

Awesome read and well thought out Jr. l had to wait till my lunch break to read.
To sum up quickly Phil said so many things this winter at times l got confused. I had to go back and afew of his posts just to figure it out he was correct about very little Arctic intrusion into the lower 48 l give him that.
But when he starts calling next winter this far out l must roll my eyes, way too early IMO even this spring/summer who knows.

[AbbyJr]

Awesome read and well thought out Jr. l had to wait till my lunch break to read.
To sum up quickly Phil said so many things this winter at times l got confused. I had to go back and afew of his posts just to figure it out he was correct about very little Arctic intrusion into the lower 48 l give him that.
But when he starts calling next winter this far out l must roll my eyes, way too early IMO even this spring/summer who knows.

Thanks so much my friend. I had fun writing it.

By the way, I'm still loving the station you sold me. Works awesome and definitely higher quality then my old one.

[SouthSardiswx]

Thanks so much my friend. I had fun writing it.

By the way, I'm still loving the station you sold me. Works awesome and definitely higher quality then my old one.

Wonderful to hear glad it's getting used, couldn't have sold it a nicer person.

[Monty]

ENSO. Solar. QBO. Is all just weighting of the dice. You’re more likely to “roll” the dice and win a good winter during a La Niña than a strong El Niño but it’s not guaranteed. Let’s say you have a 50% chance of a good roll in a neutral year. It might only be 30% chance in a moderate strong El Niño. And maybe 60% in -ENSO -QBO. 70% in -ENSO +QBO. IMO there is absolutely no setup that guarantees a blockbuster winter.