February 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Antares]

It would be nice to score a couple more snowfalls to bring us up to our average snowfall for the winter, but overall it seems like people are ready to put this one behind us. It just gets harder to care as February marches on with nothing interesting showing up in the models.
People will still post when there's interesting weather, but not for the sake of model-riding.

We had a good run.

[tyweather]

Family day fun

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Skiing should be amazing on Monday.

[Forrest Gump]

Yes , viewership is way down. I kinda miss the late night comedy hour with those two bozos. They helped to prop up the ratings whenever there was a lull in the weather action.

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[Mattman]

Snowing in the desert (more specifically, my parents place in New Mexico) this morning.

Next to my love of the Rockies, I’m in awe of the DSW. Been there three separate times. On our honeymoon in early May 2011, the day we were at the Grand Canyon was a mix of sun and heavy snow showers. It was an odd sensation: To have the sun at that high angle felt more intense than it does here in the PNW in early July, yet it was snowing and cold. We only had a week, so we were limited to Grand, Zion, and Bryce Canyon. Yes, desert snow doesn’t last long. But at some of the higher areas of Bryce Canyon (over 9,000 ft.) there were still deep snow drifts that May.

I know this isn’t a February observation, but in the meteorological doldrums, why not interject some zest? Yes, I took these pics of Bryce Canyon. Screw Vegas. Drive 3-4 hours NE of there to arrive at this.

[moonshadow0825]

This must be the most quiet it has been since the Summer. Haha

blame the daffodils in my neighbour's garden that are "this" close to blooming.

I think it just doesn't feel like winter right now and outside of the 2 snow events and the one big monsoon there's been little to no variation in the weather

not sure about anyone else but I was startled when they noted that we hadn't had more than 3 days of sun since the beginning of November. talk about becoming inured.

we still could get a snow event in the next 3 weeks, it's happened before but it just doesn't feel like it at the moment

[SouthSardiswx]

Thoughts and prayers to Jay Bouwmeester and family collapsing during last nights game against the Ducks at the St. Louis bench appears to be a cardiac episode.

[Catnip]

Interesting track, El Nito mentioned maybe slush down to 200m next week so Catman may see some wet snow.

Honestly, I just want a nice stretch of dry weather. A week of sun (without flying to Mexico) would be awesome right about now!

[PortKells]

#Beginningofmarch

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[AbbyJr]

Phil on the American forums was saying that during a -ENSO, we really need a +QBO to pull of a solid arctic blast in the PNW regions.
However, during +ENSO, a -QBO is better. Further, he mentioned that a SSW can be an exception to the rule but in general, our best winters have occurred during -ENSO/+QBO combos. What are all of your thoughts?

[Monty]

Phil on the American forums was saying that during a -ENSO, we really need a +QBO to pull of a solid arctic blast in the PNW regions.
However, during +ENSO, a -QBO is better. Further, he mentioned that a SSW can be an exception to the rule but in general, our best winters have occurred during -ENSO/+QBO combos. What are all of your thoughts?

It’s always just a “weighting the dice” situation. Nothing is a guarantee. -Enso favours a North Pacific ridge and +Qbo favours more amplification of said ridge. Or something along those lines. There are always exceptions to all these “rules” though.

He listed the 4 most recent +Qbo and -Enso winters as 2008/09. 2010/11. 2013/14. 2016/17.
2 good winters and 2 pretty average ones. Arguably the only big arctic blast in the Dec to feb periods those years was December 2008. 2010 had a blast in mid November. Other than that there was a lot of extended chilly periods but no significant arctic blasts. Could be a sign of our continuing to warm climate.
Edit. I forgot February 2011 had a brief but fairly intense late February blast. Still a bunch of pretty lame Januaries in there, as we have come to expect in these recent decades

[SouthSardiswx]

Phil on the American forums was saying that during a -ENSO, we really need a +QBO to pull of a solid arctic blast in the PNW regions.
However, during +ENSO, a -QBO is better. Further, he mentioned that a SSW can be an exception to the rule but in general, our best winters have occurred during -ENSO/+QBO combos. What are all of your thoughts?

I must say Jr. a -ENSO/+QBO combo sounds good right about now but I'm not sure if I could stomach one right about now I just had my mini wheeties as I head off to work but maybe later tonight during the Sedin night ceremonies.

[SouthSardiswx]

Phil on the American forums was saying that during a -ENSO, we really need a +QBO to pull of a solid arctic blast in the PNW regions.
However, during +ENSO, a -QBO is better. Further, he mentioned that a SSW can be an exception to the rule but in general, our best winters have occurred during -ENSO/+QBO combos. What are all of your thoughts?

Phil shmil, I can understand Dr. Phil better than him I wish he would simplifie it in other words will it get cold or not. I'm not a rocket scientist or I would have invented the wheel.

[SouthSardiswx]

#Beginningofmarch

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At least the mountains will continue to accumulate I like that.

[SouthSardiswx]

Yes , viewership is way down. I kinda miss the late night comedy hour with those two bozos. They helped to prop up the ratings whenever there was a lull in the weather action.
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Well Gumps my little buddy, the landlord gave me notice that too many birds were included in the never ever ready for prime time comedy act due to too much squawking and flapping and bird c***p so I had to return the bird to wilds of the Similkameen. it's currently a lovely 9.3cin south Sardis an absolutely spring like day.

[SouthSardiswx]

Honestly, I just want a nice stretch of dry weather. A week of sun (without flying to Mexico) would be awesome right about now!

But down there wear a mask and stay away from the water the women and enchiladas are mandatory indeed.