January 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[AbbyJr]

From the ENSO site in Austrailia re: Indian Ocean (they have a lot to lose with warmer dryer weather):

"The IOD value has fallen from a peak of +2.2 °C in mid-October, to the latest weekly value of +0.6 °C. Warmer than average waters persist near the Horn of Africa, but waters in the eastern Indian Ocean are now near-average. While the index is still above the positive IOD threshold of +0.4 °C, most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the positive IOD will dissipate in January. The rate of current weakening would suggest a return to neutral is likely by early January. "

Is the positive IOD dissipating good news for us getting cold and snow here?

[SouthSardiswx]

Score! Any idea on if it will air again tonight?

Most likely 6 p.m. newcast as well.

[SouthSardiswx]

Is the positive IOD dissipating good news for us getting cold and snow here?

It's one of the ingredients needed Jr. to plunge us into an arctic tundra.

[smartlikefox]

Still snowing pretty solidly in North Nanaimo. Wind has picked up as well. Couple of slushy cms on the ground.

[Roberts Creeker]

Still snowing pretty solidly in North Nanaimo. Wind has picked up as well. Couple of slushy cms on the ground.

Wow! Lucky you! Any chance you can post a pic for the rest of us snow starved members?

[SouthSardiswx]

Wow! Lucky you! Any chance you can post a pic for the rest of us snow starved members?

Like Sir Gumps.

[Forrest Gump]

Wow! Lucky you! Any chance you can post a pic for the rest of us snow starved members?

So close but yet so far , isn't Nanaimo right across the water from you?

[Forrest Gump]

Like Sir Gumps.

For this year's contest I've got my property surrounded by horseshoes. Not working....yet.

[SouthSardiswx]

For this year's contest I've got my property surrounded by horseshoes. Not working....yet.

l would respond with something comical but it get's me in trouble. Light rain and 3.0c in south Sardine land.

[Michael1]

Is the positive IOD dissipating good news for us getting cold and snow here?

I would think that cooler water would result in lower convection, so I would say yes, as far as another variable affecting our weather.

[Monty]

JMA only 8 days away.
jma_T850_us_9.png

It has a similar look to the gfs again today. With a strong low sliding in from the nw at day 9. Heavy snow

[Radar]

just drove through Burns Bog/Tilbury on Highway 17 and it was mixed rain and snow through that stretch. just chunky rain in Ladner proper though

Yes. 38F and some slush splats around in Richmond Delta. Get to Abbotsford and 36F with no slush. Typical valley anus.

[AbbyJr]

It has a similar look to the gfs again today. With a strong low sliding in from the nw at day 9. Heavy snow

I have a feeling the professional meteorologists will not buy into the GFS and JMA solutions until at least the Euro hops on board.

[Monty]

I have a feeling the professional meteorologists will not buy into the GFS and JMA solutions until at least the Euro hops on board.

And is within 5 days. That’s how they operate. But with all the twitter posts I see, the professionals are watching that period with interest already

[Maximus]

Just another soggy night in mission, not particularly raining hard nor windy or cold. Just wet.