December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Been some disappointing trends the last couple days. No way to sugar coat that. Pray for a miracle on the euro. Would be nice to see that energy to our west cutoff near Hawaii like the models were showing a few days ago.

[AbbyJr]

They look warmer than the 18z to me?

Actually, never mind they do look warmer. Oh well. Onto the Euro and EPS.

[Monty]

Looks like Monty is helping the AF with their mental issues.

Do you want me to lend you a hand in any way?

[AbbyJr]

Been some disappointing trends the last couple days. No way to sugar coat that. Pray for a miracle on the euro. Would be nice to see that energy to our west cutoff near Hawaii like the models were showing a few days ago.

Tyler Hamilton said the upper level pattern shown on the Euro ensembles today is still the absolute perfect setup for outflow and low elevation snows with sub-zero temperatures.

[Catnip]

Looks like Monty is helping the AF with their mental issues.

Should be some good entertainment on there tonight.

[AbbyJr]

Mid range has really gotten milder. We are looking at a solid soaker at the end of the week with a day of mild Mountain rain. Plenty of high streams by Sunday!

Lowland snow is 8-10 days away now!

Ugh this is not a good sign but here's hoping the long range verifies. Hey we could also see a sudden model flip like we did during February 2017.

[SouthSardiswx]

Do you want me to lend you a hand in any way?

That's ok Monty l've got my vitog and adt83's.

[Catnip]

Do you want me to lend you a hand in any way?

You may need to quit your day job for that.

[Monty]

Tyler Hamilton said the upper level pattern shown on the Euro ensembles today is still the absolute perfect setup for outflow and low elevation snows with sub-zero temperatures.

Just got home from Vancouver and I really haven’t had time to keep up to date these past few days. Hopefully the EPS is right but being a smoothed mean can be deceiving sometimes so we will see. If you have a bunch of ensemble members with the ridge too far west and blend them with a bunch of members with the ridge too Far East you can get a very nice mean.

[SouthSardiswx]

Ugh this is not a good sign but here's hoping the long range verifies. Hey we could also see a sudden model flip like we did during February 2017.

Remember that well, wasn't Feb. this year also a last minute hoop.

[Catnip]

Ugh this is not a good sign but here's hoping the long range verifies. Hey we could also see a sudden model flip like we did during February 2017.

Here’s hoping!
Or maybe I should say dreaming.

[AbbyJr]

Just got home from Vancouver and I really haven’t had time to keep up to date these past few days. Hopefully the EPS is right but being a smoothed mean can be deceiving sometimes so we will see. If you have a bunch of ensemble members with the ridge too far west and blend them with a bunch of members with the ridge too Far East you can get a very nice mean.

I think thats what Joe Bastardi thinks could happen. He still is baffled as to why the ridge is west of the NE warm pool. I hope its not the case though. Time will tell. Last February, the EPS verified even when it was on its own but so far it may have already got the mid range wrong. Though ensembles are typically more reliable for long range stuff. We'll see. Lots of time yet.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/ ... 95393?s=20

[SouthSardiswx]

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/ ... 95393?s=20

not allowed

[wetcoast91]

ECMWF finally going milder in mid range. Have to watch out for that huge AR event being fueled by intense baroclinic convection. Very cold air being pulled into a subtrolical flow. My guess is the rainfall will be very intense and next Thurs- Sat will end up torching.

100-150mm Thurs to Sat?

Any signs of lowland snow is all but gone in the next 10 days.