December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Catnip
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

5E74FD0A-3501-45BC-8EDE-9F75A3FCD1C4.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:23 pm 5E74FD0A-3501-45BC-8EDE-9F75A3FCD1C4.png
GEFS looks better. Slight SE ridge + Alaskan RIdge further west = colder over the PNW.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

^^^^

Starts building in a SE ridge here. But ya, would be nice if it shoved West a bit.

81D76657-151E-4553-8BD1-91BE9EE676D0.png
99DE433A-1261-42D9-BED6-AE89C52B0296.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

All the ensembles show a big ridge setting up
Shop in the North Pacific. It’s the Largest anomaly center in the northern hemisphere and that would typically teleconnect to a down stream trough in the PNW. I’d be pretty surprised if those wonky operational runs verified(GFS). But until we see the GFS get on-board I will remain cautiously optimistic.
Last edited by Monty on Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Just like LA tonight Nito keeps getting lots of shots on net, good thing we have Catstorm in goal.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:29 pm ^^^^

Starts building in a SE ridge here. But ya, would be nice if it shoved West a bit.


81D76657-151E-4553-8BD1-91BE9EE676D0.png
99DE433A-1261-42D9-BED6-AE89C52B0296.png
Doesn't mean anything at this point, but it'd also be nice if the PV would actually move west into the Yukon or NWT rather than just spin endlessly over Baffin Island. But of course we'd need a -NAO for that.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:32 pm Doesn't mean anything at this point, but it'd also be nice if the PV would actually move west into the Yukon or NWT rather than just spin endlessly over Baffin Island. But of course we'd need a -NAO for that.
Yup, that’s way out there. Hopefully next weekend stays on track. :thumbup:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Catnip wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:33 pm Yup, that’s way out there. Hopefully next weekend stays on track. :thumbup:
Yes and EC never comes on board till the last minute.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

The EPS supports the OP for 10 day snowfall total.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

GEM ensemble mean at day 10 in agreement with GFS, ECMWF. Arctic air potential down the road in the 10-15 day range
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

https://twitter.com/BenjaminJurkovi/sta ... 11648?s=19
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Monty used an AF phrase cautiously optimistic sounds like a Knuckle game. :shifty:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Storm wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:44 pm
When jaya is on-board the arctic express, we will be in business.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

January stats for Vancouver. Which of these do you all think are achievable next month?

Last temp below -5C...Jan 14, 2017
Last temp below -8C...Jan 4, 2017
Last temp below -10C...Jan 5, 2004
Last temp below -12C...Jan 4, 2004
Last temp below -14C...Jan 6, 1993

Last monthly mean temp below 1.5C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below 1C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below 0.5C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below 0C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below -0.5C...1969

Last daily snowfall above 2cm...Jan 12, 2011
Last daily snowfall above 10cm...Jan 12, 2011
Last daily snowfall above 15cm...Jan 27, 2002
Last daily snowfall above 20cm...Jan 27, 2002
Last daily snowfall above 25cm...Jan 13, 1971

Last monthly snowfall above 10cm...2011
Last monthly snowfall above 20cm...2002
Last monthly snowfall above 30cm...2002
Last monthly snowfall above 40cm...1991
Last monthly snowfall above 50cm...1982
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:03 am January stats for Vancouver. Which of these do you all think are achievable next month?


Last temp below -8C...Jan 4, 2017

Last monthly mean temp below 1C...1993

Last daily snowfall above 15cm...Jan 27, 2002

Last monthly snowfall above 30cm...2002
I went with the ones above
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