December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

https://twitter.com/MorganKIRO7/status/ ... 6232895489
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:08 pm There's talk on the A forums that a -PNA block is better for a snowy pattern versus a -EPO block, which is better for a dry cold pattern.
But I've always thought a -PNA is good for a cold onshore flow, but if we want a cold and snowy pattern, we need a -PNA and -EPO combo.
Though I wonder what a -PNA and neutral EPO combo would look like. Any thoughts?
-PNA/-EPO combo produces the most cold over the west. For a very snowy pattern, we don't want to see the massive -EPO block set up too close to the coast otherwise we'll be left high and dry. This is why our snowiest patterns generally feature a tanked PNA and a modestly negative EPO.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:48 pm Well it trended south this run. Need another few hundred Kms out of it. We got a week. Lots of cold air on the north side of that storm

DA02FAD0-8408-4CE7-8836-B288C94D84ED.png
Thursday system still trending south! Past three runs GIF
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z Euro day 7.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Looks like things start cooling off Thursday night/Friday am.

Consistent models.

8C9AFC67-709A-46F4-B946-5BD652049C58.png
44E184B0-5891-4168-B52A-5A7E7CD1A9AE.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:41 pm Looks like things start cooling off Thursday night/Friday am.

Consistent models.


8C9AFC67-709A-46F4-B946-5BD652049C58.png
44E184B0-5891-4168-B52A-5A7E7CD1A9AE.png
Unbelievable agreement between the Big 3
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Euro shows a bit of snow North of the Fraser on Thursday.
7A10E4E9-2F2F-4132-B906-0BF9E51BA3F9.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Day 8.

EURO:
ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png
GFS:
gfs_z500a_namer_33.png
Pretty similar!
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

They deviate by day 9.

EURO:
ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png
GFS:
gfs_z500a_namer_37.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:50 pm They deviate by day 9.

EURO:
ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png
GFS:
gfs_z500a_namer_37.png
Shortwave on the Euro. Reload?
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:35 pm -PNA/-EPO combo produces the most cold over the west. For a very snowy pattern, we don't want to see the massive -EPO block set up too close to the coast otherwise we'll be left high and dry. This is why our snowiest patterns generally feature a tanked PNA and a modestly negative EPO.
Could a tanked PNA and neutral EPO give us a snowy pattern?
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:51 pm Shortwave on the Euro. Reload?
Looks like it. GFS is more favourable with the location of the ridge. A notch further west...allows for a more snowy pattern.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:52 pm Could a tanked PNA and neutral EPO give us a snowy pattern?
Yes. See late January 2008 or 2002 as examples.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Sunday late am.
334FC002-5B75-4781-BA7A-2BA6ACFD62D0.png
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:46 pm Euro shows a bit of snow North of the Fraser on Thursday.

7A10E4E9-2F2F-4132-B906-0BF9E51BA3F9.png
More snow Saturday night/Sunday morning.
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