December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Agreed.

Anyways, our recent cold/dry periods have all stemmed from backdoor blasts. I've just about seen enough of those at this point.

This pattern reminds me of not sure what year maybe Dec 06, it was 11°c and sunny in the morning and - 1°c around 5 pm. and heavy snow by the evening with strong NW winds. I will never forget the dramatic change of weather in 6 hours.

[Catnip]

Things start to take shape upstream way before day 10. As it stands, we would start cooling down Thursday night. It’s really not THAT far out. We aren’t talking 300 plus hours here.

Of course it could fall apart the night before, but this isn’t just one model run we are getting slightly excited/talking about.

With the EPS being consistent it does raise the odds of perhaps some exciting weather in our future.

If there is one thing I've learned about weather here over the years it’s to never get excited till the snow is falling from the sky.

[Typeing3]

This pattern reminds me of not sure what year maybe Dec 06, it was 11°c and sunny in the morning and - 1°c around 5 pm. and heavy snow by the evening with strong NW winds. I will never forget the dramatic change of weather in 6 hours.

January 9th, 2007? Abbotsford data for that date: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=2007

[Storm]

January 9th, 2007? Abbotsford data for that date: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=2007

Probably, I know it was before 08 for sure. I was in West Vancouver for work and remember being stuck on the upper level Highway for two hours due to heavy snowfall.

[Typeing3]

Things start to take shape upstream way before day 10. As it stands, we would start cooling down Thursday night. It’s really not THAT far out. We aren’t talking 300 plus hours here.

Of course it could fall apart the night before, but this isn’t just one model run we are getting slightly excited/talking about.

With the EPS being consistent it does raise the odds of perhaps some exciting weather in our future.

If there is one thing I've learned about weather here over the years it’s to never get excited till the snow is falling from the sky.

I think most here (including me) are still skeptical just due to how long it's actually been since we've seen a decent snow and/or cold event in January. It's gotten to the point where we've solely come to depend on either December or February for wintry weather.

[Weather101]

Not negative but not too optimistic. Big difference. Otherwise, risk of major disillusionment. Especially at a 10 day deadline.

Why do you keep adding 3 days? It's 7 days away and you are constantly getting on people when they see nice model trends lol we all smart enough to know how this works but this time we have nice model agreement... we can talk about rain 10 days out but not snow ? Not saying it will happen, Hell it might not work out but best shot we had all winter.

[Weather101]

Pretty good Ensembles support.
MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Stop being negative bro it's not going to happen apparently

[Storm]

Why do you keep adding 3 days? It's 7 days away and you are constantly getting on people when they see nice model trends lol we all smart enough to know how this works but this time we have nice model agreement... we can talk about rain 10 days out but not snow ? Not saying it will happen, Hell it might not work out but best shot we had all winter.

By far.

[Catnip]

Why do you keep adding 3 days? It's 7 days away and you are constantly getting on people when they see nice model trends lol we all smart enough to know how this works but this time we have nice model agreement... we can talk about rain 10 days out but not snow ? Not saying it will happen, Hell it might not work out but best shot we had all winter.

Had in years if you consider the month.

[Typeing3]

Why do you keep adding 3 days? It's 7 days away and you are constantly getting on people when they see nice model trends lol we all smart enough to know how this works but this time we have nice model agreement... we can talk about rain 10 days out but not snow ? Not saying it will happen, Hell it might not work out but best shot we had all winter.

Not siding with either you or goose but I think what he's trying to get at is lots can still change so it's best to be cautiously optimistic at this point.

As you can see...Not a lot of agreement on day 7. Yet.

GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

Euro:

ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png

GEM:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

ICON:

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_56.png

[Weather101]

Had in years if you consider the month.

Yeah tbh January has been pathetic

[Weather101]

Not siding with either you or goose but I think what he's trying to get at is lots can still change so it's best to be cautiously optimistic at this point.

As you can see...Not a lot of agreement on day 7. Yet.

GFS:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png
Euro:
ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png
GEM:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png
ICON:
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_56.png

Yeah I didn't see anyone get excited just posting maps and seeing how January has been lame theres nothing wrong with being optimistic ‍♀️

But I understand everyone's side on this.

[Canada Goose]

Not siding with either you or goose but I think what he's trying to get at is lots can still change so it's best to be cautiously optimistic at this point [especially with snow!].

Thank God, there's at least one person understands what I mean...

[Storm]

Thank God, there's at least one person understands what I mean...

Don't thank God, thank T3.

[Weather101]

Don't thank God, thank T3.

This made me laugh way to hard