December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Canada Goose · Post by **Canada Goose** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:21 am

January?

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 12:09 pm

Nito

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 85794?s=19

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Chance of flurries on Christmas morning.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:46 pm

Continued Ensemble improvement in the mid range. Chance of flurries on the 25th and 26th.

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens (2).png

Long range has definitely trended warmer today...but still plenty of time for that to flip. Nice to see the mid range trending cooler as we get closer to Christmas.

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:51 pm

Snowed_in wrote: ↑Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:19 am The mountains still get smoked here. Long range is s complete crapshoot at the moment.

I give about 10% credibility to the long range.

IMO, here is how i look at it.
Day 1-2 90% Accuracy
Day 3-4 70% Accuracy
Day 5-8 40% Accuracy
Day 9-13 10% Accuracy
Those are simple, rough estimates

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:52 pm

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:12 am To be expected. Reverting back to jet splitting. The ensembles warmed up by over +6C overnight.

Not so fast. Wait for 18z for the flip

(I havent looked yet)

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:58 pm

Dammmm Similkameen gets hammmmmered Fri/Sat.

Double shot. YESSSSSS. Lets hope the models got it this time. Believable range. I will be there to enjoy hopefully.

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:12 pm

Nito, iyho, how long you think this sad splitty flow will last? Sadly, if we are again stuck in yet another pattern lock (looks like it), could be a sad winter buttees. Sure, the split flow breaks from time to time, but it is always coming back.
Look at the Lows that keep forming just west of N. Cali. Either that or they head there. I've lost count how many have been there now?

Frikken sad!

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:15 pm

Hawk wrote: ↑Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:58 pm Dammmm Similkameen gets hammmmmered Fri/Sat. Double shot. YESSSSSS. Lets hope the models got it this time. Believable range. I will be there to enjoy hopefully.

Yep. Snow levels look to fluctuate between 800m and 1300m.

Friday:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png

Saturday:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:23 pm

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 08930?s=19

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:27 pm

Tyler #teamsnow

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:51 pm

But at least the east is mostly warm

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-1576584000-1576584000-1577880000-20.gif

Post by **SouthSardiswx** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:20 pm

Disgusting models today, seems the night models are the best ones. Should start calling them the red light models always sexy and hot looking.

looking like 2015-2016 again.

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:02 pm

Screen Shot 2019-12-17 at 6.02.06 PM.png

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:20 pm

Not bad but not ideal:

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t2m_c_anom_7day-7858400.png

December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

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