December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

greta is time person of the year

Old news Johnny heard it at work last night Is there a cash prize or a $5 Tims card.

[Storm]

Old news Johnny heard it at work last night Is there a cash prize or a $5 Tims card.

Greta is person of the year on this forum as well.

[John]

Greta is person of the year on this forum as well.

But who took the poor child’s childhood?

[Catnip]

Congrats to

The BCSTORMS Emoji of the year!

[Catnip]

Monty, those Euro images I posted yesterday are the weeklies (Monday/Thursday) that are on weathermodels.com

I am not sure what Phil posted as his looked a bit better. Are there different types of weeklies?

[Monty]

Monty, those Euro images I posted yesterday are the weeklies (Monday/Thursday) that are on weathermodels.com

I am not sure what Phil posted as his looked a bit better. Are there different types of weeklies?

I’m really not too sure. I’m gonna ignore the ones you posted and cherry pick the colder maps. I’m not ready to give up on that late December/ early January warm ENSO sweet spot

[Monty]

Wouldn't that be nice a strong 937mb low over the Aleutians to break this pattern lock just in time.

That would be awful for us short term. Probably a big ridge over BC. But long term, it might give the pattern a kick in the ass

[Monty]

Probably more of this but my that is some favourable blocking across the North. And of course the models are all at odds with each other. But it wouldn’t take much for that pattern to turn very cold

DB8CAE90-47EF-49D3-BA5B-8CC336300810.png

[Catnip]

Probably more of this but my that is some favourable blocking across the North. And of course the models are all at odds with each other. But it wouldn’t take much for that pattern to turn very cold

DB8CAE90-47EF-49D3-BA5B-8CC336300810.png

I have that feeling that this could be one of those times when things sort of pop up towards the last minute. I could be completely wrong though.

[Catnip]

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[Monty]

I have that feeling that this could be one of those times when things sort of pop up towards the last minute. I could be completely wrong though.

Comparing the GEPS to the GEFS (above) for the day 12-16 period. Clearly the models do not have a good handle on things. That is almost an inverse pattern comparing the two ensembles

2C11E617-5C6B-451F-B618-927A5139C031.png

54169C93-FC25-4190-9E81-EAC3ED2FEB8C.png

[AbbyJr]

Who wants to dream?

cfs-daily-all-c00-namer-t850_anom_7day-9046400.png

cfs-daily-all-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-9046400.png

[Catnip]

Here are the 5 day averages around the same period.

eps10-15.png

gefs10-15.png

[PortKells]

Probably more of this but my that is some favourable blocking across the North. And of course the models are all at odds with each other. But it wouldn’t take much for that pattern to turn very cold

DB8CAE90-47EF-49D3-BA5B-8CC336300810.png

This same model battle happened last winter. I think the gfs has a cold bias and gem a warm one. Gem always won. I'll believe in cold when the Gem says so.

[Catnip]

850-168.png