December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 84096?s=19

Ski Season Un-cancelled?

[Monty]

January never lets us down. It’s gonna be okay guys and gals.

[Monty]

FWIW. The ensemble is wetter than the 12z operational

[Catnip]

FEBRUARY never lets us down. It’s gonna be okay guys and gals.

Fixed.

[Glacier]

So whats being referred to here is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

Sorry, I'm a few pages behind here, so just saw this. This is totally legit and surprisingly common at Burwash Landing. There are two stations there, and they both showed the same thing. Haines Junction showed the same thing the day before. It's called a Chinook and happens almost as frequently as southern Alberta. We are talking about the 19,500 ft tall mountain to the south, so that provides some serious adiabatic warming!

Remember that back on January 24th, 2014 Burwash Landing hit 16.5C, the hottest temperature of the day anywhere in Canada as the temperature shot up 8 degrees in one hour!


Also, It's so far north up there that they hardly get any daytime heating, so there shouldn't be any difference between night and day, and yet, the average January day varies by more than 12 degrees! This is because the Chinooks blow through almost daily. By contrast, places in the southern interior like Trail and Penticton where there is daytime heating only varies by 4 degrees on an average January day!

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1204454187641257985

[Monty]

So whats being referred to here is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

An SSW is talking about warming the very upper levels of our atmosphere. If you want to view the Stratospheric polar vortex you can look at the 10mb maps on tidbits on the northern hemisphere view. The Scandinavia high (that Phil posted a pic of) at 500mb doesn’t mean it’s sending cold directly to other places on the globe. But a Scandinavia high and Aleutian low are both good wave driving patterns to perturb and weaken that vortex in the stratosphere. A weak stratospheric polar vortex generally leads to more 500mb blocking over the pole and eventually, with time, more cold at the mid latitudes. There. Clear as mud I’m sure.

[Forrest Gump]

John will need to do some explaining soon.

I'm not giving up until I see John doing some head banging of his own.

Don't forget he's got many many many years of experience under his belt , could still pull a couple of sardines out of his hat.

Update coming soon...

[Hawk]

I'm not giving up until I see John doing some head banging of his own.

Don't forget he's got many many many years of experience under his belt , could still pull a couple of sardines out of his hat.

Update coming soon.

Well any forecast past about 4-5 days is sketchy at best, in spite of the obvious pattern lock we got going on here
So Johnny is still ok. We can only really evaluate around Dec 31 cuz then we can see into early Jan as well.

Go Team Johnny!

[stuffradio]

Well any forecast past about 4-5 days is sketchy at best, in spite of the obvious pattern lock we got going on here
So Johnny is still ok. We can only really evaluate around Dec 31 cuz then we can see into early Jan as well.

Go Team Johnny!

#beginningoffeb

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status ... 0171439104

[Canada Goose]

This is totally legit and surprisingly common at Burwash Landing. [...]

Exactly. That's what I said.

And this morning... back to normal.

Burwash.jpg

[Hawk]

#beginningoffeb

Not again... =wet snow festival and fast melting. And a soupy mix and mess in most areas.

[AbbyJr]

Well any forecast past about 4-5 days is sketchy at best, in spite of the obvious pattern lock we got going on here
So Johnny is still ok. We can only really evaluate around Dec 31 cuz then we can see into early Jan as well.

Go Team Johnny!

https://youtu.be/wkDvqQKGgDA

[Monty]

February can still be okay. We had some beautiful powder snow last year