January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png



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20250127142104-4d42c169d51b210058818100a31d70e6937452fe.png
20250127142050-4ca095758e877a6b8e1f8a73bd20600c9fd1325e.png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

06z GFS
Day 5 to Day 13

North Pacific blocking! :thumbup:
gfs_z500a_npac_fh120-312.gif
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 3:56 am Looks like the rug pull has begun :( :x
pulling_the_rug_out.jpg
For the oreganos maybe. Looks perfect for BC. I demand Nito explain this!
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:40 am 06z GFS
Day 5 to Day 13

North Pacific blocking! :thumbup:
gfs_z500a_npac_fh120-312.gif
Feb 2017!
6B358B7C-AA47-4C0A-9FD7-ABB5254D596F.png
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:32 am It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.
Some of our heaviest snows are around -1 to 1C.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:32 am It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.
Hopefully not a case of being in the sweet spot too early like Jan 2011. Gives me some pause.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

PortKells wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:57 am Feb 2017!

6B358B7C-AA47-4C0A-9FD7-ABB5254D596F.png
I am looking forward to the local hills finally fully opening up.
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

The string of -4’s continues. -4.1˚C this morning.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 7:32 am It's kind of a case where you don't want a deep arctic airmass if you prefer snow over cold. Recent runs are a fine balance that delivers +0C wet snow.

Some ensemble runs really dig that trough which brings in the cold but keeps all shower activity in Oregon and SW Washington.
It’s one of the easiest ways we get a snowfail instead of a snowfall here: too much cold air, tumbleweeds here, all the snowy fun caused by cold air clashing with moist marine air stays well to our south. Weaker blasts tend to be better for us if you want snow.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Orientation of the trough favours heavier snow showers for Western Vancouver Island and Eastern Fraser Valley. This GFS run makes me feel that 10-15cm could be a good bet on Saturday-Sunday.

Probably a scenario where Eastern Vancouver Island remains bone dry and Metro Vancouver sees periodic slushy showers that don't accumulate to much.

Looks better on Sunday Evening as the arctic outflow kicks up but the Lower Mainland dries out.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 6:37 am 00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




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20250127142104-4d42c169d51b210058818100a31d70e6937452fe.png
20250127142050-4ca095758e877a6b8e1f8a73bd20600c9fd1325e.png
Ensemble mean dipping below the -7˚C mark in all three, but six days out. If it’s sticking to the same schedule tomorrow, it will be five days out, finally inside the believable range and worth starting to get excited about.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 8:18 am Ensemble mean dipping below the -7˚C mark in all three, but six days out. If it’s sticking to the same schedule tomorrow, it will be five days out, finally inside the believable range and worth starting to get excited about.
Any idea how far south the modified Arctic air drops are we talking another Seattle skunker. :o that would really get them riled up.
IMG_20250127_081931947_HDR.jpg
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The 7th annual snowfall contest is about to begin stay tuned

:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 15.0cm :wtf:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 3.5cm :cryhard:
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Radar »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 8:14 am Orientation of the trough favours heavier snow showers for Western Vancouver Island and Eastern Fraser Valley. This GFS run makes me feel that 10-15cm could be a good bet on Saturday-Sunday.

Probably a scenario where Eastern Vancouver Island remains bone dry and Metro Vancouver sees periodic slushy showers that don't accumulate to much.

Looks better on Sunday Evening as the arctic outflow kicks up but the Lower Mainland dries out.
Don't forget the rug pull later today on things. End up with showers and highs of 4. hahaha.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

It seems to me that these fake cold periods often lead to favourable winter conditions and snow 8-)
#patternshift mid Jan leads to :flakey: :flakey: #beginningofFeb...again.
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