January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 4:54 pm It pains me deeply to say this but I think the GEFS is leading the way. It's the most convincing signal in the models. It has remained consistent and quadrupled down on itself. The euro ensemble is good but it has that cutoff bias and the GEM ensemble is waffling around.

It's possible for sure. The GFS isn't the best and it's often wrong, but it does get it right from time to time. The 18Z GEFS run today was very cold. Even the 12 EPS looked really good today. This is far from a lock but far from over. I think there is a solid chance for some cold and snow. :silent: :wave:

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-indiv_tmp-7914400.png
ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-7892800.png
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Last edited by AbbyJr on Sun Jan 26, 2025 6:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

China model looks cold.

8D70ED46-7C2D-4CA9-9DDF-A7D7CF9E9B83.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Hound wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 5:59 pm That should not happen. It's an issue with cookies on your PC. If you save the cookie you should not have to re-login every time. But if you empty your cache each time the cookie will be deleted thus having to login every time.
I get logged out all the time on Chrome on my pc, just this site and I don't clear the cache, I check the stay logged in box, but it's fine on my tablet on Chrome, so I use Firefox for this site on my pc and it rarely logs me out maybe every couple of months or so.

I'm considering switching from Team Winter-Cancel to Team Snow!
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

ps. I like this forum. I really appreciate Typing for posting the charts/graphs even when there's not much going on and it's great when there's lots of maps but I like to be able to read each post which is hard to do when it gets busy. Sure it would be nice to see more action on here during the quiet times but I'll take that any day over what I hear you all talking about happening on the AF.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

John wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 5:37 pm The only complaint I have is that I have to re-login every time which is annoying
I absolutely love this forum and I'm very thankful for Stuffy and all those who maintain it. I'll be on here forever. It's a great weather community. :D

My only complaints about this forum is the 5mb limit on uploads. Normally this isn't an issue but I've been having trouble keeping the WxBell gifs within that threshold. It's also disappointing that we can no longer directly embed X posts here. While I understand and respect the fact that Stuffy is trying to prevent the forum from slowing down and crashing, I wish there was a way to keep this forum running smoothly without these limitations.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Not bad...

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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

This would be a snowy but less cold solution...unless I'm off on that.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

PortKells wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 7:34 pm This would be a snowy but less cold solution...unless I'm off on that.

icon-all-namer-z500_anom-1737936000-1738454400-1738584000-20-2.gif
It's cold. Has Snow as well.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Storm wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 7:37 pm It's cold. Has Snow as well.

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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

With the amount of cold air being spilt out over the water (on a lot of these runs), something is bound to spin up in that scenario.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

I have a good feeling about the orientation of this trough. We have done so well with these set ups in past years. The tight north south gradient is just what we want to be seeing. No suppression depression please.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z ICON shows an arctic front passing through the south coast by Saturday night, followed by a snowy Sunday. Fairly similar to the 18z GFS.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

PortKells wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 7:45 pm I have a good feeling about the orientation of this trough. We have done so well with these set ups in past years. The tight north south gradient is just what we want to be seeing. No suppression depression please.
The American weenies may annex us if that happens and they get skunked again. :lol:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is about to begin stay tuned

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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 7:44 pm With the amount of cold air being spilt out over the water (on a lot of these runs), something is bound to spin up in that scenario.
Yep, usually see a low form off the coast along the arctic front as it sags south if there is enough over water trajectory.
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Re: January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hound »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 7:20 pm I absolutely love this forum and I'm very thankful for Stuffy and all those who maintain it. I'll be on here forever. It's a great weather community. :D

My only complaints about this forum is the 5mb limit on uploads. Normally this isn't an issue but I've been having trouble keeping the WxBell gifs within that threshold. It's also disappointing that we can no longer directly embed X posts here. While I understand and respect the fact that Stuffy is trying to prevent the forum from slowing down and crashing, I wish there was a way to keep this forum running smoothly without these limitations.
There is. Probably due for an update. The 5mb limit is to prevent the forum slowing down or actually running out of storage space on the server. We could go back and get rid of stuff that is multiple years old, but them if you reference it, the image will be gone. So it's a bit tricky.
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