January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

We had a good run. You could see this winter coming a mile away.

[wetcoast91]

We have much bigger issues than that, unfortunately. The whole pattern keeps shifting when it gets within range. We're in that winter, the one that hopefully shall not be spoken of again.

Anything noteoworthy is beyond 13+ days again. I don't mind the sunny weather but models are showing a very active pacific which could lead to a return to wetter runs ahead.

[PortKells]

Anything noteoworthy is beyond 13+ days again. I don't mind the sunny weather but models are showing a very active pacific which could lead to a return to wetter runs ahead.

How about snow levels? Anything for the mountains? It seems like at least the PNA dips negative. Just give me something.

[wetcoast91]

How about snow levels? Anything for the mountains? It seems like at least the PNA dips negative. Just give me something.

Fully positive PNA. Ridging/split flow.


GEM shows more cold dry weather but is trending weaker with the blocking.

It's just an awful pattern if you want precip/snow. Really hope we see a chilly zonal flow by late Feb to close off the winter. I want to see more Mountain snow.

[Catnip]

Welp, after a beauty day yesterday, we are back to (what seems to be) our default weather this winter.

FOG/LOW CLOUD AND DRIZZLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Catnip]

We have much bigger issues than that, unfortunately. The whole pattern keeps shifting when it gets within range. We're in that winter, the one that hopefully shall not be spoken of again.

The one positive is that it will soon be #FEB and our chances should be better as we get #climo on our side.

If nothing happens next month I would wish for a warm spring, however, pretty sure it will be damp/cool seeing how this year has progressed.

[AbbyJr]

What?! The Euro is caving to the GFS? No way!

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8065600.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8065600.png

[Catnip]

What?! The Euro is caving to the GFS? No way!


ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8065600.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8065600.png

Many were quick (not on here mind you) to dismiss the GFS because of what it was showing.

Where's the Wiz?

[AbbyJr]

Euro took major steps towards a GFS solution. GEM is now on it's own.

I'll have to admit I wasn't expecting that shift towards the GFS last night. Big fail for the Euro at 120hrs if the current solution verifies.

[AbbyJr]

Many were quick (not on here mind you) to dismiss the GFS because of what it was showing.

Where's the Wiz?

To be fair, it's very rare for the Euro to fail at 120hrs and for at least several runs, the GFS was a big outlier.

[Catnip]

To be fair, it's very rare for the Euro to fail at 120hrs and for at least several runs, the GFS was a big outlier.

Well I've seen it before, but ya doesn't happen too often.

Doesn't seem to fail when it is showing though... right Neetz?



Moral of the story... never discount any one model run no matter how much of an outlier it appears to be. #climo often wins out in these situations.

[Catnip]

At the same time, things can always trend for the better (if you are wanting the colder solution).

We have also seen that happen before.

[Catnip]

The real looser in all this are the mountains.

Euro snowfall for the next 10 days.

Just brutal.

10 day snow.png

[wetcoast91]

The one positive is that it will soon be #FEB and our chances should be better as we get #climo on our side.

If nothing happens next month I would wish for a warm spring, however, pretty sure it will be damp/cool seeing how this year has progressed.

We are probably heading back into another December 2024 regime. +PNA. Dirty ridging with milder than normal temps.

LR models will try and suggeet a -PNA scenario but it's quite clear the atmosphere needs a major shakeup. We probably need a major SSW episode...

[Hawk]

To be fair, it's very rare for the Euro to fail at 120hrs and for at least several runs, the GFS was a big outlier.

Its ok buttees. The models are understandably struggling with the Mid/LR deets during this noticeable #patternshift. I'm sure the picture will become much more clear in the next several days. I'm still thinking a NW chilly flow/dry arctic outbreak towards the end of this month

#climo