January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

That guy has been around for a while... I believe he was at TWN a few years back? I recall him also tweeting in early December 2021 regarding the long range model ensembles for late month looking similar to the pattern setup in December 2008, which ended up verifying fairly well, from a large scale perspective at least.

Wouldn't surprise me if we do see at least some wintry weather in Feb, given it has been the most likely month to deliver over the past decade.

Based on his X (Twitter) profile, he seems credible.

At face value, the upcoming pattern progression modelled does look quite similar to that of December 2008. But that's assuming it verifies and that's a big if at this point. But with the MJO potentially moving into phases 2 and 3 and possibly 4, that could set the stage for a classic La Niña pattern. It's definitely possible that the past few retrogression attempts have failed because the models were just rushing things. While there are no guarantees and my confidence is still very low, there is a reasonable chance that this upcoming retrogression attempt will actually succeed. Therefore, It wouldn't surprise me at all if we go into a cold pattern with at least some snow in the last week of the month and or early February. However, I also wouldn't be shocked to see another failed pattern change confirming a dud winter. Time will tell.

[SouthSardiswx]

Low of +0.2C this morning.

I can't seem to get below 0C. I'm beginning to think my thermometer is broken. Unless it's our climate that's broken.

Likewise Abby Sr. your not alone previous to the last two mornings we've only had light frost this season. I haven't seen it much below 0.5c at the pond.

[SouthSardiswx]

Well it looks like A I Canada smartened up and took away the sub wintery temperatures for the weekend for the central valley now it looks like a fake chill is on tap lows and highs to remain above freezing what a joke of a winter so far a F-

[AbbyJr]

Tonight's 00Z Euro looks really good between 234hr and 324hr. After that, it looks like the GOA block is going to get ruined by energy from the north and west. But thankfully, anything in the 300hr+ range is meaningless on the deterministic models. I'm excited for tonight's EPS run.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7979200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-8195200.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-8195200.png

[Weather101]

Based on his X (Twitter) profile, he seems credible.

At face value, the upcoming pattern progression modelled does look quite similar to that of December 2008. But that's assuming it verifies and that's a big if at this point. But with the MJO potentially moving into phases 2 and 3 and possibly 4, that could set the stage for a classic La Niña pattern. It's definitely possible that the past few retrogression attempts have failed because the models were just rushing things. While there are no guarantees and my confidence is still very low, there is a reasonable chance that this upcoming retrogression attempt will actually succeed. Therefore, It wouldn't surprise me at all if we go into a cold pattern with at least some snow in the last week of the month and or early February. However, I also wouldn't be shocked to see another failed pattern change confirming a dud winter. Time will tell.

So, basically, to sum this up.

We don't know

[Weather101]

Well it looks like A I Canada smartened up and took away the sub wintery temperatures for the weekend for the central valley now it looks like a fake chill is on tap lows and highs to remain above freezing what a joke of a winter so far a F-

That's the problem with West Coast winters. It's really a joke compared to the rest of Canada. Maybe we get a few days of snow a year? Maybe? Lol, that's not winter.

On the flip side, I'm positive that's why a lot of us love snow—because we are not spoiled by it. It's basically a rare treat.

[SouthSardiswx]

So, basically, to sum this up.

We don't know

We haven't known all winter here Weedo welcome back tomorrow to reality at it's worse out here.

[SouthSardiswx]

That's the problem with West Coast winters. It's really a joke compared to the rest of Canada. Maybe we get a few days of snow a year? Maybe? Lol, that's not winter.

On the flip side, I'm positive that's why a lot of us love snow—because we are not spoiled by it. It's basically a rare treat.

That's true Weedmonster that's why l step back from model riding for my health it's not fun during times like this.

[SouthSardiswx]

Dang the 6Z GoodForSheets is absolutely horrible as it has been all season.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

-0.8˚C, third freeze in a row (with many more on tap).

[PortKells]

Dang the 6Z GoodForSheets is absolutely horrible as it has been all season.

Very low confidence as to where this pattern is going. Those frickin weeklies just keep teasing it and then it keeps moving back.

[Typeing3]

Clear with a low of -1.5c in east Coquitlam this AM.

[PortKells]

Americans reacting to how their national "model" performs is a microcosm for how delusional they are in general. I wouldn't be surprised to hear on the news that some dude shot his computer after another wayward GFS run.

[wetcoast91]

Very low confidence as to where this pattern is going. Those frickin weeklies just keep teasing it and then it keeps moving back.

More dirty ridging with a pattern that looks favorable for pineapples in the long range.